From a post shortly before the last NZ election in 2011:
I’m picking National will just win, draw or nearly win the election outright, that ACT will not earn more than one seat (hopefully none), and that National will choose to work with the Maori and Greens as they did in the last term (as well as Peter Dunne of course). New Zealand first won’t be showing up to the bar.
Overall that’s a bit of wishful thinking as I see this group as the best outcome for New Zealand right now. We need to continue to weather the global events, and certainly don’t want rapid politically driven changes.
For Auckland Central, hopefully Nikki Kaye will become a minister and Jacinda Ardern will elevate to a front bench position after a major Labour reshuffle.
I got it all right – eventually, with the glaring exception of NZ First. Nikki Kaye has finally been elevated to caucus, Jacinda Ardern was promoted to Labour’s front bench after the election, and ACT received only one seat. NZFirst’s swath of seats sadly upset things, and they have proven to be a party without substance, once again. Parties that land a few seats driven by one personality rarely seem to last more than one term, and NZ First is hopefully no exception.
I won’t be moving this blog to political punditry anytime soon though, as these were fairly easy to predict at the time.