Archive for the 'Global Macro Trends' Category

Global official aid falls - NZ languishes at the back

Pathetic.

Official development aid worldwide actually fell by 8.4%, in real terms, last year. This meant a drop from 0.31% to 0.28% of OECD member’s GNI, rather than rising up towards the 0.7% of GNI agreed to at the Gleneagles G8 and UN Millennium + 5 summits in 2005.

Much of the change was because debt relief programs last year were not repeated - they should be and they should be extended.

Get informed on this stuff by reading Stiglitz’s book - “Making Globalization Work“, which captures the concerns of the globalization activists and NGOs and answers with some very practical solutions. It’s highly readable to boot.

NZ’s ODA contributions rose by 3.7%, but we are languishing at the back of the pack in dollar (acceptable as we are tiny) but also %GNI terms.

Some charts

OECD

OECD

China: all but wheat, sugar and rice

Wheat, sugar and rice, along with “certain paper products” those are the items that will remain subject to tarrifs when we export them to China. They represent about 4% of our exports to China, so not a bad outcome.

All three grains are subject to some pretty serious subsidization and quota-driven distortions in the world markets, and we are not serious contenders in the field. So forget about it - let the USA and Europe carry on paying their farmers billions to grow uneconomic wheat and protect from cane sugar imports. This does deprive the developing world of huge export markets for their otherwise competitive farm proucts, but that is a different war.

Overall I’m impressed with the deal - pretty straightforward lowering of barriers and some cultural exchange (working holidays and the like) built in. No horrilbe DCMA copyright provisions, no distorting pseudo free trade - this is pretty close to a good as it gets, though dairy products will take until 2017-2019 and wool is subject to a quota.

Well done to both China and NZ’s negotiators.

The rules of origin seem to be pretty fair - a lot of “change to heading xxx from any other chapter”, by product, which I interpret as meaning that  if a country makes a product from sub product parts that came from elsewhere then it is still duty free.

But what of the human rights, I hear squealing from the left?

Well, another way to look at that question is to ask a similar question: do we believe that the USA should remove their distorting sugar quotas (that keep Cuba’s producers down), trade embargo and travel barriers to Cuba?

Of course they should - engagement is the best way to help another country move forward, and by being open with China we are able to help them welcome them to the world.

And besides - do we really think we, the last decent sized habitable land discovered by humans, can tell a 6000 year old civilisation, land of 1.3 billion, how to behave?

I think not - we punch above our weight, but they are in another game entirely

How journos see the world.

Check out this fascinating series of maps which show how various on and ofline newspapers and the blogosphere cover the world. Interestingly NZ is pretty well covered regardless of the source.

onlinejournalismblog

onlinejournalismblog

more here, and flash version with high res links here

Healthcare - double the inflation rate is unsustainable

I’m reading Stiglitz and Bilmes’ new book - The Three Trillion Dollar War. It sets out to show the cost to the USA of the Iraq war, and they go to lengths to be conservative in their calculations (the end number goes over $5bn, but I have not got there yet).

But that’s not the issue here. The authors mention en passant that:

Both scenarios predict that medical health care inflation will continue to increase at double the rate of general inflation, as it has for decades

I smell bad forecasting - Nobel prize (economics prize) winning Stiglitz is using standard projections for the cost increases, assuming that the future will be the same as the past.

as anyone offering securities for sale will tell you, past performance is no indicator of future returns. Or as I like to put it, when something is too good to be true, it isn’t.

With health care costs rising at a much greater rate then everything around, then the point of absurdity will be reached where health care costs subsume everything else. In reality things do not work that way, and the market is begging for a discontinuity to “fix” things.

So, in 2004 the USA spent 15.3% of its GDP on health care, rising from just 7% in the 1970. The CMS forecasts that the trend will continue, and we’ll see 20% GDP share, or $3.5 trillion dollars, or $12,300 per person, by 2015. That chart in the linked pdf just keeps rising, implying 30% in another 10 years beyond 2015.

That’s crazy, and it  reeks of opportunity.

While we do not know how and when, any number that big is begging for someone in a garage to reinvent the system. Medical doctors have moved from amongst the most highly paid in society to solidly middle class, while their prestige has also taken a hit. The money appears to go to hospital care, physician and clinical services, big Pharma, and so forth,  but the US health insurance industry and others are responsible for a tremendous amount of waste on the way through - 26% of costs are admin, versus 3-5% in France. Those big players are fat, happy and dicing with people’s lives - perfect targets for a discontinuity.

So - what are we waiting for? Here are 10 ideas for governments to pursue:

  1. Shift massively to preventative health care programs, which cost a lot less and are much more effective.
  2. Deregulate the pharmacy industry, removing the need for prescriptions for the top 80% of drugs. This will reduce the need to go to the doctor for simple cases, reduce admin costs and allow for proper online pharmacies. The entire “third world” operates this way, which is why I now do not stock up on drugs when I travel, but just buy then for pennies when I am there.
  3. Reduce the length of time that patents apply to newly invested drugs to one year. This will vastly reduce the cost of drugs as generic companies can get drugs to consumers orders of magnitude cheaper. Most new drugs, especially in dollar terms, are lifestyle rather than health drugs (think Viagra), anyway, so ignore the plaintive cries of big pharma who claim all development will stop.
  4. Nationalise health care in the USA - the current private system is woefully wasteful and misses vast sections of the population.
  5. Remove the industry barriers to certifying doctors and other medical professionals that qualify in other countries and jurisdictions.
  6. Remove mandatory FDA or similar testing of drugs, but mandate labeling. The FDA approval process adds years and huge amounts of cost to drug development. Allow companies to sell non-approved experimental drugs under the proviso that patients accept all risk, and that they pass basic “no obvious harm” tests. FDA approval should still exist, but would be instead a gold-stamp for safe drugs. This would reduce the development and retail costs of drugs, and allow the market to decide for themselves which drugs are the best
  7. Promote and pay for better food, better fitness, safer roads, (e.g. autonomous vehicles) and other basic life expectancy increasing efforts.
  8. Legalise and tax all “illicit” drugs, with the tax revenues going to rehab and medical costs
  9. Legalise and simply implement voluntary euthanasia, reducing care costs for the terminally ill.
  10. Legalize of sale of body parts such as kidneys, provided certain conditions are met (i.e, ensuring there is no extortion etc.). This will reduce waiting time, and carrying costs, for transplant recipients to essentially zero.

and some science fiction for the private sector - some of which may be more likely in the USA than some of the the politically unpalatable choices above. Actually none of these are beyond reason in the medium term, there is plenty of work on elements of each

  1. a DIY doctor kit that lets you perform most basic medical and surgical tasks
  2. a “doctor in the house” unit that will diagnose and fix almost all medical problems, right down to intensive surgical techniques. Simply install the unit, keep it stocked up and make sure each family member pops into it once a week for a check-up.
  3. Genetic modification - both before birth/conception and during life. Pop a pill and there goes that male pattern baldness, oh, and that nasty predisposition to cancer.

US Share Portfolio update - 12% up YTD

My US Share portfolio (green) in 2007 was up 63.5% versus the S&P500 index return of 3.53%. A great year, and I did sell down a bit around the peak, which hit 77%.

Can I do it again?

etrade

This year to Friday the 28th of March - I’m up just 12.6%, but the index is down 10.4%. so you could say I’m 23% ahead, but that’s today. I’m publishing this after a good run - things can turn quickly, as I found in late Feb.

etrade

For the story of last year, check my previous missives - the last one when the portfolio was up 72%, and I also talk about getting out of eBay (at $39 - they are now $30, visited $25) and Apple (at $163, now $143 after visiting the $115 range).

While the Apple shares initially went up, they then went way down, while the eBay shares just went down. In retrospect it was great timing - and based on some news that had come out for each company, and a shaky market based on the cheap debt crisis.

However I screwed up by buying more Apple shares last year when they were still really high, but made up for it by buying a bunch of eBay shares this year when they were very low and some Apple shares and options when they were low as well. I got a little too levered in February this year - so the green line shows a lot of volatility. I’ve since lowered my leverage.

I’m still, as always, very short Microsoft - both with short selling the stock and with options. I’m hoping the merger with Yahoo! goes through as the combination is not good and should see more value destroyed. MSFT has dropped from $34 in the last post to $28 now - a healthy return for those put options especially.

I’m still short Equity Residential - a rental property owner, but I did sell out of them completely earlier this year, and am getting back in as (over) confidence is returning to the markets after the Fed movements. I’m believe there is a good chance that the recent interventions are band-aids, and there are plenty more bad stories to come.

Being long and short means I’m less exposed to the violent market fluctuations, but I am exposed to days when things are rosy for Microsoft and bad for eBay and Apple. I’m betting the reverse is more common.

Finally, in a down market it pays to go to companies that sell basic stuff - so I’m following my own advice and I’ve invested for the first time in Berkshire Hathaway. I expect to build up my holdings in Warren Buffet’s company - it is a long term buy and hold in a down market.

All this is in USD of course, and the currency has subsided a bit. The amounts are nothing special, but I’m having lots of fun.

Blogging for $35 billion - Expensive Tankers

So you lose a $35 billion deal to a competitor that you have been keeping away from your major customer for years. What do you do?

Well if you are Boeing, the customer is the US Government (Airforce), the competitor is Airbus and the product is refueling tankers, then you start a blog.

and launch an advertising campaign.

and protest the tender process.

While Boeing can depend on getting some support from local Americans that want the local provider versus the “French” Airbus, in reality the situation is a lot more nuanced. Both competitors are really global companies now - Boeing has outsourced much of its manufacturing to Asia, while Airbus will set up manufacturing in the USA for this deal.

Boeing are risking a lot by officially protesting this decision. If they lose then their reputation is damaged, and if they win then the buyers and users will forever remember that they are getting the second pick. There’s a smell of sour grapes to the whole affair, but perhaps Boeing is being smart by letting the US Government buyers know that they will make it tough for anyone that chooses a foreign competitor.

The comments on the blog are interesting - ranging from the barely articulate to the surprisingly informed.  Here’s one:

Bill Parson (Colorado Springs):

I write to express disappointment at Boeing’s decision to protest.

1. The Air Force asked for a tanker between 300,000 and 1 million pounds gross weight.

2. The Air Force in it’s RPF stated that they would award to the contractor who “met or exceeded the requirements.”

3. The Air Force in its RFP stated this was a capabilities-based, best value competition

4. Northrop Grumman offered more for the same price.

5. Why did Boeing tout:
- Made in America
- Jobs
- Fuel Savings
- Size

None of these were AF requirements?

….

and here’s another:

Paul Jernberg (Michigan):
I too am dismayed by the recent Air Force bid competition. Again the USAF appears to be buying something bigger than what they need or started out looking for (KC30) they also changed the rules of the competition in mid-stream. I also do not understand how/why Northrop was allowed to design the program that the USAF used to make their decision. I think maybe Mr. McCain should start an investigation into wrong doing by Northrop in this case.

I have spoken with the staff of our State Senator, MR. Levin (chairman of the arms committee), they have assured me that he is watching the GAO review very closely and will step in to do what is necessary if he feels the GAO does not respond in the appropriate manner.

Do not give up the fight, this is much too important.

Paul

Kudos to Boeing for putting up the blog and allowing comments to flourish.  Dangerous, but well done to open the conversation.

There is plenty of other commentary online - including pro-Boeing Tanker War Blog run by DC insiders and lobbyists,  Wired’s Danger Room has a great post and the WSJ has an article - which mentions the history that the Boeing blogs conveniently forget to mention:

The decision sparked outrage among Boeing’s supporters in Congress, as well as criticism for Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, who led the fight to scuttle a previous deal that would have given Boeing the contract without a competition. That deal was doomed in part because it was later learned that a Boeing official had engaged in illegal employment negotiations with an Air Force procurement official who played a role in setting up the contract. 

Most of the financial commentary seems to indicate that Boeing has no chance - but like everything in DC, this is political, and anything can happen.

A tale of two friends - the impact of South African flight

This is an article written by Charl du Plessis - a buddy of mine from business school in the USA. He is an expat South African, and is writing about the flight of talent from South Africa. They still have not found equilibrium there, whereas in NZ it seems the flow just might begin to reverse. No names.

A Tale of Two Friends
The Brain Drain

Words by Charl du Plessis Pix ©

I was thinking about two old friends this week. The one is undoubtedly the smartest person I have ever known. The other, simply the most successful. Common to them are their humble roots somewhere in mid-South African society, and secondly, that the local business environment could not find a place to accommodate their phenomenal talents. The smart guy, because his best ideas are too new and threatening; and the successful guy, because his pursuit of the best available ideas took him to greener pastures. They were both in South Africa last week. The smart guy, because he lives and works here, although his contribution is grossly underrated. The successful guy jetted in for a press conference, where some local newspaper desperately tried to claim him as still one of our own.

I met Dr Success at primary school. When Chopper first introduced those bicycles with the long handlebars, our bloody knees testified to our better understanding of the word “speed wobble.” We got puppies from the same litter and gave them equally ridiculous names. The early death of his father introduced that scary concept into both our young lives, although it always remained unspoken. Our mothers shared the same dream of upward mobility when conniving to send us both to boarding school at an old, reputable institution. Here, for five years, our friendship drifted apart as we jostled either to ingratiate ourselves with kids from the affluent neighbourhoods, or to compete for their respect, in the only arenas we had to our disposal – sport and schoolwork. Trust was broken somewhere along the way as he managed both. After school, he went on to accrue a list of blue chip distinctions before settling in Australia as the heir apparent of a global company that will shape the future of our children in significant ways. We lost touch, then connected briefly on Skype for a while where I found that his country of origin was no longer an important point of reference. His kids all spoke Mandarin even as the local business press called him “Boertjie.”

Mr Smart and I met during the indignity of university initiation – running up a mountain before daybreak in a uniform T-shirt and suffering abuse, mostly verbal. He was already obnoxious then, questioning and challenging every step of the process. This would become the central theme to his studies and career. Always questioning and challenging, to the point that he would never humble himself by graduating. The regurgitation of stale ideas was just too unpalatable for him then, and that has only grown more acute through the years. He dabbled in a few things to keep alive, while reading three books a night. Someone in advertising spotted his intellect over a dinner table and offered him the chance to help shape the fortunes of local companies. Every ad agency worth mention on an advertising resume put him in the front-line at some stage or the other, including a few stints abroad. As we reconnected every few years, the scope and intensity of his insights were becoming progressively abstract and futuristic, but the cynicism that showed through when he told of good ideas lying rotting in client boardrooms was moderated by his enduring belief in the potential of people. What was clear when talking over a glass of wine last week was that he has finally been forced to change tack. He was dumbing down his ideas so that his clients could still feel that they owned them. It was too scary to open up for what the new could bring. The market was losing his talent, because it lacked the daring to engage with challenging thought.

These talented individuals are flip sides of the same phenomenon – the South African brain drain. Dr Success represents the common garden variety, where the talented have migrated to the next level of opportunity elsewhere. Mr Smart shows how thin our business strawman has grown around the top as the talented depart. The old joke where both countries’ average IQ increases when a talented South African shifts abroad has grown stale. The vacuum of talent at the top has created a lack of competition in the local market for ideas, and an enormous complacency with our own prejudice. Built on the legacy of Apartheid education, that either discouraged critical thinking, or plainly denied learning, our tolerance for disruptive intellectual horsepower has dissipated. But what an opportunity for the company that can create an environment within which no idea is too far-fetched for consideration, or where no “gut-feel” opinion goes unchallenged. Are there gutsy managers in your organization who let good ideas penetrate their comfort zones? Or is the only idea left how to afford the move abroad?

Real Estate is falling - what happens next?

The housing crash is cascading around the world, and the dire predictions are coming true. Here’s the latest chart from The Economist - check out Ireland on the bottom. That’s a crash, not a “balanced slump”.

economist

Meanwhile Trade Me just surpassed 70,000 property listings, on the back of signing up one of the last few major real estate agents holdouts.

Things to look out for in the next few months are:

Trade Me listings volumes to peak as the remaining real estate companies sign up, and then settle as the market slows

Increasing time to sell and lower average prices (duh), especially at the top end

A drop in the newspaper pages dedicated to housing advertisements and articles, lowering the income for the likes of APN and Fairfax

Real estate agents switching careers as they have less commission to share around the industry

and a fair few had luck stories from speculators that got in at the peak and/or didn’t get out in time

a general downturn in optimism & perhaps the internal economy

That sense of déjà vu is the ghost of 1987 creeping back.

Ham-fisted intervention in markets is dull thinking

Score one for protectionism, and minus several ranks of the economic freedom index for New Zealand, after the Government intervenes to prevent a Canadian fund from buying into Auckland airport.

When the market drops by 2% after a new protectionist law is created it should be obvious to everyone the impact of ham-fisted interventionist Government policy.

This law means that the Government has reserved the right to change investment rules on a whim, and so the risk of investing in New Zealand has just risen substantially. Foreign investors will apply a higher risk rating to NZ, and so will demand higher returns for their investments. That means less foreign money coming in, and ultimately, lower growth.

Is this what the govenrment is promoting? Lower growth?

There are plenty of ways to protect “strategic assets”. Changing the investment laws is amongst the worst of them.

The sage of Omaha speaks

Warren Buffet’s yearly missive is out. Essential reading for anyone interested in investing. Here are some tasty snippets:

“You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out – and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.

It’s better to have a part interest in the Hope Diamond than to own all of a rhinestone.

if a business requires a superstar to produce great results, the business itself cannot be deemed
great.

Going to any other flight-training provider than the best is like taking the low bid on a surgical procedure.

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.  Think airlines. 

(My behavior resembled that of a politician Molly Ivins once described: “If his I.Q. was any lower, you would have to water him twice a day.”)

A line from Bobby Bare’s country song explains what too often happens with acquisitions: “I’ve never gone to bed with an ugly woman, but I’ve sure woke up with a few.”

The best anecdote I’ve heard during the current presidential campaign came from Mitt Romney, who asked his wife, Ann, “When we were young, did you ever in your wildest dreams think I might be president?”  To which she replied, “Honey, you weren’t in my wildest dreams.”

Former Senator Alan Simpson famously said: “Those who travel the high road in Washington need not fear heavy traffic.”  If he had sought truly deserted streets, however, the Senator should have looked to Corporate America’s accounting.

I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century – envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100.  If your adviser talks to you about double-digit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him.  Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”  Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees.

A fellow was on an important business trip in Europe when his sister called to tell him that their dad had died.  Her brother explained that he couldn’t get back but said to spare nothing on the funeral, whose cost he would cover.  When he returned, his sister told him that the service had been beautiful and presented him with bills totaling $8,000.  He paid up but a month later received a bill from the mortuary for $10.  He paid that, too – and still another $10 charge he received a month later.  When a third $10 invoice was sent to him the following month, the perplexed man called his sister to ask what was going on.  “Oh,” she replied, “I forgot to tell you.  We buried Dad in a rented suit.”

Every day is exciting to us; no wonder we tap-dance to work.  But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting.  So join us on May 3rd at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists.  We’ll see you there.

At 9:30 we will go directly to the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:00.

one in 99 USA adults is behind bars

Not only are US Prisons terrifying, . , but now we hear that 1 in 99  of the US adult population is behind bars.

“Incarceration rates are even higher for some groups. One in 36 Hispanic adults is behind bars, based on Justice Department figures for 2006. One in 15 black adults is, too, as is one in nine black men between the ages of 20 and 34.

The land of the free.

Actually prison time is probably sociably acceptable, and even getting to be a rite of passage for some of those groups.  When prison is no longer a bad thing, then does a Government have control?

“On average, states spend almost 7 percent on their budgets on corrections, trailing only healthcare, education and transportation.

I’m no public sector economist, but it seems pretty obvious to me that most of the 7% could be better spent on a safety net, education and health care to solve the root cause of the problem.

Hope: Si Se Puede Cambiar

Like Bill Clinton, from Hope Arkansas, Barack Obama is bringing positivity to his first campaign for president. This video is stunning.

Si Se Puede Cambiar is the US Spanish translation of Obama’s “Yes We Can Change”. I you have not seen Obama in action, then here’s a 2 minute snipet:

Below the fold are the big New Hampshire speech and the other big music video.

I do enjoy the speechifying, but am thankful that NZ still practices politics that are about policies more than imagery.

Continue reading ‘Hope: Si Se Puede Cambiar’

Judgment Day is here: negative housing equity

SST reports on several stories of negative equity situations happening in Auckland.

That’s when the value of a house is less than the money owed to the bank.

“One home had mortgages to ASB for $723,000 and Finance Assist for $150,000. It sold for $535,000.

“The mortgage was to Property Finance Securities (in receivership) for $1.363m. After much encouragement from the auctioneer it sold to a dapper gentleman in a pinstriped suit for $780,000.

When negative equity occurs  the financially logical, if not exactly ethical, thing for owners to do is to walk away from the mortgage (and perhaps declare bankruptcy). The banks force the house into a foreclosure auction and walk away with less money than they are owed.

It’s called judgment day.

The day when all the “it’s too good to be true” stories finally become exposed for the confidence trick that they are

The day when the leveraged speculators that got in late into the real estate boom move from being paper millionaires to paupers playing with worthless paper

The  day when the media turns against the industry, the editorial and advertising pages dedicated to real estate shrink and the commentary begins to have a sharp edge
The day when we all recall how it was in 1987, and how housing prices took years and years to recover

The day when the bubble is exposed as it bursts

The day when dapper gentlemen in pin striped suits start to become interested in picking up a bargain or two.

The day when I start to become mildly, oh so mildly,  interested in real estate.

Lights on or off - Safety versus Environment

Does the safety of turning your lights on during the day outweigh the cost?

According to Hamish Piercy - no.

Apparently lights on increases fuel consumption by 2%, which is a huge number. (Frankly I dispute it, and want to see the evidence)

and Hamish’s research says that:

“However, on closer examination he said there were many factors that complicated this such as ambient light conditions, the effect of glare, the brightness of the lights and potential masking of other road users.

and

“It is apparent that those supporting the use of DRL’s predominately refer to studies carried out in countries at lower latitudes which have significantly lower ambient light levels.
“Studies carried out in countries recording higher ambient light levels throughout the whole year were less supportive of DRL’s and did not appear to be in favour of their mandatory use.”

So  it is darker in Scandinavia that NZ/Australia, so lights-on works better. Again - I’d prefer to see how those studies were carried out downunder, and so forth.

This certainly is going to raise a few eyebrows in the Safety community -  is it better to be slightly more safe or to emit 2% less CO2?

The Joneses listing is cancelled

Bugger. That was an obvious short on the housing market, in spite of a very interesting game changing revenue model.

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Disclaimer These opinions are my own, and not that of any of my clients, who often disagree with me but seldom say I don't have an opinion.

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