Archive for the 'Internet Business' Category

Why I don’t read Public Address

Via Not PC I see that there is a top NZ political blog ranking system.

That’s interesting.

Well not really – but I do like to read a range of views, and follow No Right Turn (#6, blogspot), Kiwiblog (#1), not PC (a rabble rousing #3 – also on blogspot) and The Visible Hand in Economics (#13). I also occasionally read Whale Oil (#8),  Roarprawn (#13 – blogspot) and rising star Offsetting Behaviour (#23 – blogspot)

I’m amazed at the number of blogspot hosted sites. I just don’t get it. WordPress is not only a far simpler platform to use, but it doesn’t show the blogspot toolbar on the top, and it makes it trivial to buy and host the site on a personal domain name.

Surely it is time for the better sites to move from something like norightturn.blogspot.com to norightturn.com?

I don’t read number 2: The standard, 4: Public Address or 5: No Minister. The Standard and No Minister have never compelled me to stay (especially versus No Right Turn and Kiwiblog – who really are excellent) while I have issues with  Public Address.

Let’s work through those personal issues I have with Public Address, because it is a much read and loved site by others, and people get really engaged there. Here are the top ten issues

  1. The front page has snippets of articles only. Reading shouldn’t be an active sport – but on Public Address I have to click multiple times to read the posts on the front page
  2. The articles are, well, articles. They are far too long for the internet media – seeming more suited to magazines.
  3. The articles often contain more than one topic – this one contains about 4 different thought streams. That may work for an email newsletter, but in a blog (or indeed a newspaper) the expectation is one story per story.
  4. Actually that link isn’t to one post – but to a series of posts (I was referring to the one on 7 July) on the same topic. That’s just weird.
  5. The link buttons and so forth under each post don’t look quite right – they are not standard and so I am not sure how they function.
  6. The comments are somewhere else – so you can’t read the article and see the comments straight underneath without clicking yet again
  7. Once you are in the comments section you can’t get back to the main Public Address site – there is no home link.
  8. It’s http://publicaddress.net – that’s weird. I still think of .net sites as being technical ones to do with running the internet. What is wrong with .com or .co.nz?
  9. The RSS feed is clipped. This is important as everything above is forgivable if I can read entire articles in my RSS reader. However like the homepage you can only see a few lines of the hundreds in each article.
  10. Overall it’s just too hard – the site makes me think too much about how it functions, and not enough about whatever it is they are talking about.

The solution is easy – move the site over to WordPress. There are plenty of people in NZ to help with the transition and even a WordPress camp coming up in Wellington.

None of these issues are to do with the actual content of the site – which is apparently very good. It’s a classic case of the usability getting in the way of the product.

I often wonder just how much traffic Public Address would get if they adopted standard usability and technology.

So is this just me – or do others have the same issues?

So you’ve got a good idea – now what?

I’ve been getting an increasing number of ideas over the transom over the last few weeks. It started before the radio interview last week, accelerated because of that, and tomorrow it seems I’m in the latest issue of Idealog.

It’s really good to receive them, and I enjoy helping out and even starting some businesses. However last week I’ve been a bit slow to reply to some of those messages – and I apologize for that. Some of them I’ve been checking out, others I’ve been thinking through and still others I have just left. I will get back to everyone eventually though.

But there is one problematic category of ideas, and it’s one where I want to give some very strong advice. The note or call I receive will go something like this:

I’ve got a great idea, I’m not going to tell you what it is (at least not without an NDA), but I am going to invest or have already invested a bunch of money into it.

I’ve seen everything from $5000 to close to half a million invested in or required for companies and products that you have never heard of or are not even described. I’m always willing to help people in these situations but they need to be more honest with themselves about the value of the idea. Holding it too close to your chest means the idea won’t be as good, the speed of execution will be much slower and the amount of money invested will be much higher.

Instead here is my take on what to do once you have that wonderful idea for the next big thing.

Before you start

  • Check the competition – If it is a great idea then it may well be done already. Get online and search for the product – and be very persistent. Check different channels to make sure it isn’t being sold already, and make sure also that there isn’t a close substitute. Be very thorough in this and, importantly, keep doing it forever.
  • Share and improve the idea – Shop it around your friends and family, talk to potential customers, experts in the field and determine that it is a good idea. Along the way you’ll hopefully find some people that you respect and that are energised by the concept. Ask them to help. Your idea may be good, but with the assistance of others you can make it great.
    Be flexible with the idea and tweak it as you learn new things. Write it down in a structured manner – and have very crisp and consistent descriptions for the product or business, why it is better and will sell and your path to develop it.
  • Estimate the size of the opportunity, and be tough. This means numbers – how many widgets will you sell, at what price and what margin. It’s important to test your projections against the real world – what does 1000 sales per day really mean per sales outlet, will people actually pay the retail price, what are the wholesale margins in the channel you are using and and so on. Track your business against these numbers.

Starting up

  • Focus on the few. What few things do you need to believe, what do you need to do and and what results do you need to see before you can truly prove that the business will succeed. Write them down. Then spend your time focusing on those things, trying to get to them in the cheapest, fastest way. If you cannot prove something then you may need a leap of faith, but if you disprove something then change tack or move to the next idea.
  • Pay with equity – have some partners and pay them with equity. It’s the best way to save on start-up costs, it means better results as people have genuine interest in seeing the business succeed and it’s a heck of a lot more fun. Stay well away from large suppliers that deal mainly with corporate customers – their fees are far too high and you are a low priority for them. If you are struggling to find the right partners that will work for equity then perhaps there is a hint there, and your idea isn’t The One. Note that you generally need to pay for actual purchases (like raw materials) but work performed in the early stages should be for equity.
  • Don’t spend anything material until you know you will get a return. Great entrepreneurship has very little financial risk, so be miserly until you know it will succeed. Put very little money down at the start, investing only in the critical raw materials or services that you need, and focus on investing your and your partners’ time. Wait for revenues – if the idea and execution is good then there will be plenty of money later.

Growing

  • Be prepared to stop, and stop fast if at any stage it is clear the business will not succeed. You are passionate about your idea, but you also need to be dispassionate enough to exit before you waste too much money. An informal or formal board can help a lot here. If you have already sunk money into a business that isn’t proven, then treat it as such – sunk money that is gone forever. Don’t fool yourself into thinking your new venture is valued at the amount of total investment – look instead at what the profits are and will be.
  • Go full time – a full time CEO is the only way to really drive a business forward. Once you know the idea has legs then quit your other pursuits and focus on growing this business. Or perhaps you are not the right person to be the CEO, so find someone who is and cut them in. Don’t be distracted by the next business idea – that’s pointless until you’ve either made this one work or killed it.
  • Spend as little as possible – don’t pay your self (or anybody for that matter) any more than you need to live – and live frugally. Wait until the business is sustainably making money and then start increasing the salaries of the contributors, eventually to market rates.

5 Recent posts that I like – and a new page

I’ll be on Kathryn Ryan’s Nine to Noon program on Radio NZ at about 9:20am Monday 22nd.

There are a few potential topics to cover – including why NZ is a good place to be right now, what businesses can do to manage through the recession and the Social Innovation camp next steps. We’ll see what happens on the day.

For new and newer readers I’ve just put up a page of posts that I like from the last couple of years.

Posts I like.

Here are some good recent ones

Blame directors for failure, CEOs for success

2 shots were fired Self restraint is good

Let’s stop MPs drinking and lawmaking Seriously

Two McKinsey pieces on education – do read them

Well done Green cabs – now how about that website Great comments

Brass Monkey 2009 – a photolog The annual winter bike rally

Today’s news is fluffy

The front pages of both Stuff and NZHerald today are a sad indictment of both media in NZ and of what readers want to read.

Let’s look at them article by article – and to do so I’ve helpfully colour coded the homepages for each. I’ve sampled each page this morning above the fold on my big screen, and categorised the articles. Your interpretation may vary, but overall I feel the ratio is sadly skewed towards fluff.

Let’s start with the NZHerald. Real news included Aussie business confidence, churches and schools dealing with flu, Obama’s new plan for the US financial system (arguably the most important piece – certain for business/economy) and new property listings down.

However they also had “Man jumps off Yellowstone falls”, “Is Joe Karam a good pundit choice?” and “Flash cars don’t reel in the girls”.

Pink is “fluff”, green is “fluffy – but still news” and dark purple is “real news”. Click on the picture to see a zoomed up version.

Stuff’s (and I blame them for starting me on this post) real news included “Swine flu hits prison”, “bodies suggest jet broke up in air”, Jetstar’s bad first week, Dows (pathetic) offer to clean up their chemicals and the postponing of the eviction of gang members from their house.
However they also had “Poolside photos with the Allblacks”, Michael Hill’s new house and “World’s most handsome man named”. (I didn’t click through, but I am guessing it wasn’t me)

Neither had anything on Iran’s post election story – which is the biggest geo-politial thing happening in the world right now.

However if you want to read world news, then you can scroll down on each site- which I did, searching for the Iran coverage:

Stuff had a 5 word link to an article:

NZHerald had a short paragraph link to an article, and a small photo – better, but sad for what are critical moments for Iran, the region and the global economy and politics. (Iran has oil, issues with Israel and so on).

I’m not an editor – in fact the only time I ever made an editorial decision at Fairfax resulted in Stuff inadvertently breaking a budget lockup embargo. Editorial decisions are best left to journalism professionals and I stayed well clear.

But yet – can the editorial teams at Fairfax and NZHerald be happy with the content of those home pages? How do they compare to the newspapers? Are both Stuff and NZHerald worrying too much about pageviews and not about content? The end of that particular path is well trodden by Rupert Murdoch, and it’s not pretty.

Surely we can do better.

NBR is doing better – their home page has a much lower fluff quotient, and is a remarkable effort for a group that was late to the party.

However these days I’m doing what many others are doing, and getting my news via twitter alerts from WSJ, NYTimes and fellow twitters, via RSS reader for blogs and sites like interest.co.nz and the very occasional visit to a news home page.

Idiot taxes mean business opportunity

A while back I wrote about Dick Smith being a stupid place to buy stuff.

The cheapest HDMI cable you can buy on sale at Dick Smith, with the 15% discount, is a staggering $55.23.

Despite a Dick Smith staff member’s comment on the post

“I work there and I will admit you can get pretty much anything we sell cheaper on the internet”

…Amnon, amongst others, commented that there are in fact some things that are cheaper to get from DSE, but it still leaves the mystery of the $55 HDMI cable.

Now from an interesting source comes an answer – and it makes sense. DC based political blogger Matt Yglesias picked up on the notion that the HDMI cables are an idiot tax (or information tax). Actually Matt got that from Alex Tabarrok:

My best guess is that this is an unusually strong version of the hidden fee model of Laibson and Gabaix. In that model, firms overprice one aspect of service–such as a hotel charging exorbitant rates for telephone service–as an idiot tax. Crucially, the idiot tax is matched by an IQ-subsidy; the price of the hotel room is lower than it would be without the idiot tax–so the idiots don’t know to shop elsewhere and the high-IQ types are, in fact, drawn to stores with an idiot tax. Thus, buy your blu-ray player at places such as Best Buy which sell a lot of expensive cable as well as massively overpriced extended warranties.

I’d extend that, and see there are three reasons that people pay these prices:

  1. Convenience: Buyers know the price is unfair, but chose to pay as the difference in price is made up by the convenience of buying the item in store.
  2. Information: Buyers don’t know that the prices are unfair – as they are unaware of the either because they do not now the prices elsewhere.
  3. Coercion: Buyers know the price is unfair, but pay the price as they feel that they have no other option.

Let’s examine these in turn, but first let me state that any business that treats their customers as uninformed or coerces them into buying things should understand that the idiot is not the customer, but themselves.

1. Convenience

This is actually fair – if the extra price a store charges for an accessory is more than compensated by the convenience of obtaining that item immediately, then buyers can make a rational choice. This is a form of price discrimination – a time rich and money poor student may choose to shop around, while a harassed business person in a suit may choose to pay the premium.

It’s critical, however, that the difference in price is not excessive, as then the situation can easily move into the third category of coercion.

2. Information

This is screwing the customer. The store has deliberately chosen to take advantage of the naivety of their shoppers and is taking excess margin.

While this win-lose transaction works at the cashier, stores should realise that in the long run the information will emerge. This manifests itself in a gradual erosion in the public perception of the store. In marketing speak – this is brand erosion, in business speak this is falling sales and eventual bankruptcy.

3. Coercion

This is clearly screwing the customer, with the full knowledge of the customer. Assuming the customer has not walked away this coercive approach results in much faster brand erosion through word of mouth and publicity. The customer experience is negative and they do business with the seller under duress. This is clearly unsustainable.

Where industries contrive to collectively screw customers they open themselves up to a new competitor that breaks the rules and offers customers a straight deal. Indeed all of these approaches carry that risk. Let’s look at some example industries, and how a new player could take advantage.

Convenience Stores and service stations charge more for basic items as you will pay more to get it 24/7 and in an easy location. There are plenty more examples of the 1: convenience category.

Existing store chains can be out competed by mid-small sized supermarkets – much like the metro markets in London or downtown Wellington. There is also room for a service station chain to lower prices of key products and promote that as a competitive advantage. Finally the 24 hour supermarket with service station attached completely changed the industry – reducing the need to c-stores and taking big chunks out of petrol station margins.

Electronic retailers like Dick Smith place low margins on the flagship products, such as TVs and DVD players, and then makes up margin by selling HDMI cables with 80% markup, pointless warranties and so forth. The warranties and HDMI cables are un-buyable as it is clear that there is to much excess profit involved. This falls into the 2: or 3: categories above – as the price difference is just too high to be otherwise.

These old players are being out-competed by e-commerce players with low overheads, knowledge driven selling (i.e. great descriptions) and competitive pricing, cross checked by price search sites. There is little excuse for using something else these days.
There is space, perhaps, for a fairer high street seller, but it’s a tough game with tiny margins – and those rents and staff costs are not cheap.

Hotels advertise expensive rack rates, but offer cheaper ones on websites and through package operators. They charge extortionate rates for telephone calls, internet access, meals, drinks and for mini-bar purchases.

The result is that the smart hotel consumer avoids all of these extras, meaning that they actually have negative utility – the mini bar tempts you but you dare not indulge. These fall into the 3rd, coercive, category – but most chose not to pay.
There is room, and some are addressing it, for a fairer hotel approach. Charge reasonable fees for the phone, minibar and suchlike and people will start actually using them. In NZ we have always had motels, which (unlike the South American definition) are cheap, cheerful and generally fair with the extras.

Rental car agencies add airport fees, taxes and most importantly, insurance costs to their initial quotes. In NZ we have it a bit better, but the sales pressure to lower the insurance excess remains – avoid this as it is a ripoff. Don’t start me on the “free fuel – return it empty” scam either. Many (too many) people fall for this – make no mistake it’s in the 3rd category, and you should not pay.

A new play in Spain (and sadly I can’t find them) completely transformed the expat rentals a few years back by offering a one price, full insurance included, sign and drive away service that acquired customers for the agencies. Other approaches include the rent a car for an hour places like ziphop.co.nz or zipcar.com, or (please) a new rental player that charges one price, full insurance and provides instant service without 10 minutes of typing into an archaic green text screen.

Mobile Telephone providers ‘fight’ on their headline calling plans, but charge high prices for international calls, international roaming, excessive texts, minutes and in particular international data. With very few exceptions these rates are not reducible – and so international data roaming in particular is simply unusable.

The mobile telephone companies have a grip on the market – but resellers and new players like NZ’s 2degrees have the ability to be somewhat transformational by offering one price for all you can eat deals. 2degrees is stuffed on international roaming though, as these prices are dictated by the counter-party. However Vodafone has the ultimate opportunity to simply make international roaming data, voice and text fees disappear for their customers – and they’d have a lot more customers if they did so.
Customers have voted with their feet on telecos – and have moved across to Skype, especially for international calls. When the marginal cost of a call, text or data is so trivial, and the alternative of Skype is ever present it makes it obvious that the Telcos strategy should be to make the prices low enough for us not to care.

Apple charges good prices for their computers, but outrageously high prices for their RAM. The savvy buyer gets the minimum RAM and upgrades on their own.

Apple has locked in loyal customers, such as me, by providing great products. Competitors have much greater hurdles to crack than the price of memory, so for now just keep buying your memory from somewhere else. Memory (and Hard Disk) retailers should be targeting Apple buyers, particularly for the newer models, and making it easy to find and buy cheaper alternatives.

Many of these businesses are mired in the past, and a new player has the real ability to capture a large share before the incumbents react – and by which time it is often too late.

So what other idiot taxes are there – and more importantly what opportunities present themselves as a result? A recession is a great time to attack.

Let me pay my bill Contact Energy

I’ve been getting a number of letters from Contact Energy recently, so I decided to actually open one of them on Saturday afternoon. Turns out they are gas bills, and I’m well overdue. Time to pay the bill then.

So off I went to the Contact website – contact.co.nz. <update www.contact.co.nz. The page fails completely without the www. Thanks Velofille> Imagine my surprise:
contact
There are two things wrong with this – the first is that Fairfax is cybersquatting on the property, and the second is that they are not redirecting it to Stuff.co.nz. It would be a good idea to do so.

So next I tried contactenergy.co.nz, and had more luck. well – at least I managed to get the right company, but I struggled to find how to pay amidst the sea of red. None of the circled links said “pay your bill”, and the amount of red together with the tiny font size made the whole page quite frustrating.
Contact Energy

I tried the most likely link, and got this, which talks about switching from paper to electronic billing. I have a simple rule though – if I cannot pay my bill online easily then I will probably have a lousy experience with online delivered invoices. This was very true with both Vodafone NZ and Telstra in Australia.
Contact Energy

So I went back to the home page, and tried another link. This page talked about direct debit (too much trouble to set up) and smoothing pay (too much trouble again), but maybe the link on the bottom under “other ways to pay” will help?
Contact Energy

Well, as it turns out, no. It seems that I simply cannot pay my overduepayimmediatelyorwewilldisconnectyourgasforceyoutohavecoldshowers bill on the Contact Energy website – I have to jump through hoops at my bank to do so. (My bank is BNZ, and their hoops involve that stupid netguard card.)
Contact Energy

It would have been nice to provide inks to the banks, phone numbers for the telebanking, and most of all, the 0800 number for calling to pay by credit card. Sure there is a Customer Service number on top of the page – but can I use it to pay my bill by credit card?

So overall Contact Energy has failed to help me pay my bill and pay it now, and I headed off to BNZ’s site feeling more than a little frustrated.

I’ve placed a phrase on top of the page in the above screenshot that I suggest they put on the website until this problem is sorted.

And sort it they can. Let’s head to Western Australia to see how to do this properly. Synergy is WA’s largest retailer, apparently, and being from Australia and a giant company you’d expect them to be pretty backward.
Indeed they are – they don’t believe in monthly billing (it’s every 2 or 3 months), but they do understand that making it easy for you to pay is important. There are two prominent links from their home page:
Contact Energy

Click on the top link, and you get a popup and the ability to pay instantly. Simply enter a payment number from your bill, your credit card number and amount. There’s no security required – if someone wants to pay your bill by entering your number, then good for them. You can also overpay your bill (as I usually do) so that you don’t have to go through the hassle of paying next month.

Synergy Energy

So how about it Contact? Until Powershop moves into gas (which is tough) I guess we are stuck together.

Let’s make it happen

On Tuesday last week I was lucky enough to listen to an interesting range of cool people give 5 minute talks on the topics of their choice. (ok – only one person hit the 5 minute market exactly, and he had a giant clock on his chest) It was Webstock’s 3rd birthday and exit from rehab.

There is a great summary of everyone over on Shadowfoot’s blog.

Unfortunately (for me and for the audience) I was also asked to give a 5 minute talk, and as I was placed last I had to follow in some big footprints. I was filled with confidence after there was a cheer as I was introduced, before I realised that it was because I was introduced as “the last speaker before the drinks”.

I’m re-writing what I spoke about at Webstock from an early version of my notes. Sadly I don’t have the annotated notes from the event, so I am missing some of the extra pieces that I had gleaned from previous speakers.

Choosing your own topic is a peculiar type of torture – so I asked organiser all round good person Natasha for advice, and she informed me, and I quote verbatim, that she was expecting:

“a ballet recital followed by your rendition of Broadway show tunes followed by your 5 min talk on why Tash is awesome”

I’d left my tutu behind, so instead I chose instead to to add a bit of context to the last time I was up in front of a similar audience – when I affirmed with two sturdy comrades in arms at Foo Camp that “The Future of New Zealand is Fucked”. It was a convincing display by our team, but sadly the audience voted with their hearts – indicating that they preferred to believe the opposition.

So I decided to join the crowd, and spoke this time about “Why are we here?”.

Not “why are we here?” in the Dalai Lama, Catholic Church or Douglas Adams sense, but “Why are we here in New Zealand, in Wellington and at the Webstock event (or even reading this blog)”

I believe that we have a choice in all of these matters (except you Mum – you have to read my blog, even if you don’t actually do so)

By definition, anyone that has the get up and go to attend Westock, to read blogs and twitter about what is going on, also has the get up and go to do so – to leave New Zealand and head for the gold paved roads of the UK, USA, Europe and Kathmandu.

Indeed many of us do, including myself. I’ve been offshore several times now, the first time lasting about 10 years, and the last few times a year or two each.

So why do we come back, why do we stay?

After all in New Zealand, and in Wellington in particular there are three compelling reasons not to be here:

The weather sucks. It really does. As I draft this on Saturday morning the rain is lashing against the house, Cook Strait is closed to the Ferrys and the latest flight from Sydney was diverted to Auckland. Meanwhile in Perth it’s sunny and warm, in Europe summer is nigh and we are consigned to short days, rain and cold.

We are miles away from anywhere
- we were the last decent place to be permanently colonized by humans (discarding Pitcairn Island and Antarctica), 4 hours away from Australia and 10 hours way from anywhere interesting (11 from Wellington).

And we have a crappy Internet connection to the rest of the world, a connection seemingly controlled by rent maximising companies (shame on you Telecom) rather than stakeholders determined to open up access to the rest of the world.

It means I’m cold, days and too many dollars away from the great friends I have around the world and my broadband sucks.

And yet, and yet – I am still here – we all are. Why is that?

Again, I believe there are three answers: The weather really sucks, we are miles away from anywhere and we are connected to the rest of the world through a crappy internet line.

In New Zealand, and in Wellington more than anywhere, we expect the unexpected. This Saturday morning the weather forecast was all doom and gales, but some friends and I grabbed and hour of relative stillness to go for a quick bike ride. Meanwhile the day before the Webstock bash, the weather was shake your house from the foundations wash the green off the leaves horrible, and yet canny Wellingtonians knew to put suntan lotion on, for lo and behold it was crisply perfect that afternoon.

It means that when Vaughan Rowsell decided to go for a bike ride back in January, he didn’t wait until next summer, but took off for an April to June journey- knowing it was going to be cold, wet and miserable at times. He’s (almost there) succeeded. It’s the same urge that will guide hundreds of motorcyclists (myself included) to ride to the Brass Monkey this weekend, which is in freezing central Otago and deliberately held at around about the time of the year when the first big dumps of snow come through.

All this adds up to a people that are ready for anything, that accept no excuses and just get stuff done, regardless of what else is going on.

You can see it when we Kiwis land work in London, study in the USA, crew boats in the Med and work in charitable organisations in Africa. Kiwis arrive and depart with a deserved reputation for being able to handle anything and everything with no fuss.

Our society helps create these people with an excellent education system, a great social welfare system that means we are kept healthy, off the streets and trained, and political parties and a system that generally allows logic and fairness to guide decisions rather than a hackneyed partisanship system. Generally.

A word on education. Not only do we have places like Wellington’s Massey Design School, which is a truly great place, but more importantly we have a very high average level of education, and a very high 10th percentile level of education. That is – the least educated amongst us are far better off than their equivalents in other countries.

I’m not trusting comparative statistics for this – I’m trusting the excellent service levels across all sorts of organisations, from airlines to banks, rental car companies to restaurants and lunch bars that we receive relative to other countries. While the systems may sometimes (often) be less than stellar, invariably the people are polite, smart and able to deal with a variety of situations.

And finally that lousy wet weather means that we live in a beautiful place, one that encourages us to get out and enjoy it, and that attracts others from around the world to do the same.

So we are resourceful and smart, a fair people, have a decent corruption free society and we can do anything.

And yet we live miles away from anywhere

Not for us the intense deal making and energy of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, where anything is possible and nothing is too expensive.

However that vast distance also means that we avoid the Wall Street of today, the excesses that crushed an economy and the deal making and loans to business and individuals that abruptly halted.

And while we do leave New Zealand by the thousands to take advantage of London and New York, we gain valuable experience overseas and then we bring it back – either on loan when kiwi stars appear at conferences and on boards, or more permanently when we return home.

We come back because it is home, but also because it is easy to live and do business here. It’s trivially easy to start a business, to open bank accounts and to pay tax here.

We have thriving local competition, even amongst start-ups. We have DonateNZ and Givealittle, Thinksmall, MadefromNZ and Bizchat, Fishpond and Mightyape, Phil & Teds and Mountain Design Buggies, and the Jobs Summit, Foo Camp and Entrepreneurs Summit.

We all want to give it a go, and that competition means that the winners (be they a single winner or, often, a merged entity) combine to be a great, and hopefully, export led company.

To be sure we also have our problems, stuck here at the end of the world, but we are pretty good at identifying them, and we are pretty good at marshaling attention and energy on them until they are fixed. The number of pre-emptive summits for the economic crisis, the reports and government moves on the lousy broadband, the likes of Cactus Kate railing against the NZX governance and the rise of the NZ Institute all give hope.

But it is that crappy internet that is the final advantage we have. Not the lousiness of it, but the fact that it is there. (And yes – please please improve it with urgency)

Decent internet reduces costs, reduces pain and reduces cycle time. It means that we can build businesses in the cloud (basing them offshore to avoid the thin pipe) and address the world.

It lowers the trade barriers between us and our customers and suppliers, and it makes the world our market.

Our Government is helping as well.

We have signed Free Trade Agreements with China, Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Chile, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines and Vietnam. That’s an astonishing 1.9 billion people – or 25% of the world’s population.

We are also in negotiations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and South Korea. That moves it to a free trade addressable market of 2 billion people – a market of about 480 people per New Zealander, or 4 million people per reader of this blog today. Who cares about the anti-free trade USA subsidies when we have this market?

That’s plenty enough to share.

Finally, why were people at the Webstock event, and why are you (still) reading this?

When I returned to New Zealand in 2003, I’d realised that my ideal job was to
help find and found start-ups, to help growing businesses grow faster and to help their owners and employees perform better. It’s fun.

I met the then existing VC and private equity firms, but they seemed to be on the slow train, and many were mired in government hand-out bureaucracy. The tiny average investment size, the small size of the funds and the slow velocity of transactions all counted against the industry and their funded companies. I wanted better.

I was lucky enough to land at Trade Me, just before they hit the mainstream, and the energy was there. Now, six years later, and after stints overseas and here in New Zealand, I realise that times have changed across the board.

Trade Me, Xero, Peter Jackson and Richard Taylor, amongst many others, have all demonstrated that you can be good guys and start, run and make money from (the jury is waiting a verdict on Xero) excellent and cool companies.

Meanwhile the internet generation is hitting their stride. The 22 year olds of today have always been online, and they intrinsically get the space.

There are older returnees that are bringing energy, experience and cash back to our shores, and, most of all, there is a sense of opportunity.

The opportunities and energy is real. After landing back here in March, after selling up in Fremantle, it took only two weeks before I had over 20 opportunities of one description or another, and I am now part of two new companies.

Almost at the same time I received a call from Equip Design – who consult as part of the Better By Design program. I’m now on the team, and have visited the first of a series of clients that will build off a rich NZ history of successful transformation into design-led export-driven companies. I’ve toured Formway Design (unbelievable) and looked at from afar at the success of Obo, Phil and Teds and other successful graduates of the program.

We are good at this stuff – product design, anything internet based, branding, lean and flexible manufacturing – indeed the entire product development process.

Our local economy is strong, our addressable economies of the world are in varying degrees of trouble, but our export volumes are trivial to them, and our products are often clever and cheaper solutions to problems that they are just starting to look at.

So we have the people, the experience, economy and education. People are giving start-ups a go, and we have a huge market to address.

There are plenty of roadblocks on the way, but we Kiwis can do anything, regardless of the weather outside.

Let’s make it happen.

Well done Trade Me, but the threat remains

There’s an interesting article over at eBay strategies, which talks about how eBay lost the market for classifieds and mentions that Amazon is taking out the top end. (If you work at Trade Me then you should have eBay Strategies in your RSS reader)

I’ve mentioned it here before, and it bears repeating: Trade Me is different.

Trade Me has captured the Motors market, is well ahead of the incumbent in Property traffic and just behind the incumbent in Jobs. They are also in flats ( and have been for years) and rental property.

Meanwhile Trade Me’s free listings and simple localization meant that they have always been in the local classifieds game – things like sofas and so forth that require a face to face transaction.

The overall effect was a business that left no space for the well executed Zillion and Finda to get traction.

So well done Trade Me, but the threat will always be there – screw up and someone will take big chunks of the business. This will happen, for example, if Trade Me attempts to increase fees too much or if usability is lost in a host of features. If so then Craigslist, Gumtree or say Zillion will be right there to pick up the volume.

Sadly for the competitive threat Trade Me is still following the path to usability, and while I’d like to see lower fees in tough times they are probably at the right level for now.

It’s the same at the top end for eBay with higher quality product sellers moving across to Amazon.

Indeed while a substantial percentage (say 40%) of Trade Me’s listings are new, there does remain a bit of a gap in the market for direct selling of quality new products. It’s the one Ferrit was so hapless at finding, and I’ve mentioned how you can take advantage before. The gap is pretty tiny, but between New Zealand and Australia (where eBay is also screwing up) there is plenty of scope.

I’m saddened at just how eBay have managed to lose the plot, but respect Trade Me and how they are still showing the way after 10 years.

Why are Harcourts not yet on Trade Me?

There’s a fun discussion happening over on the Unconditional Blog – which if you have not found it yet is well worth following. I commend Alister Helm for not only his writing, but also for balancing the real estate industry (and their archaic ways) and the dot com approach to things.

However Alistair write a post on Harcourts that was just a wee bit too fluffy for my sensibilities – so I asked the question “.. are these change leaders <Harcourts> even on Trade Me yet?” (I knew that they are not – and they are missing out on 600,000 browsers each month)

If you go to that post now then stop reading – I’ve just copied and pasted. Indeed join the conversation over on Alistairs blog raher than starting s new one here.

To his credit Alistair gave a comprehensive reply, but it does not fly with me.

1. Realestate.co.nz – the most comprehensive single property portal in NZ – 95% of all listings by real estate agents are featured, the site receives 370,000 unique browsers per month with over 120,000 of these from overseas. This single portal provides the most comprehensive source of real estate – test it on Google which is were the majority of real estate searches start – type in “property in …” on Google NZ.

2. Harcourts.co.nz – the number one company website with over 160,000 unique browsers per month, close to double the web traffic of any other company website.

3. Google adwords – the opportunity to promote property online with pinpoint accuracy and cost effective visitor traffic.

Harcourts have never used Trade me property for all of their listings, they are not alone. At this time realestate.co.nz would have over 20,000 more listings than trade me property. As well there are over 200,000 unique browsers a month who go to realestate.co.nz who do not visit trade me property. (these are all Nielsen Stats)

Harcourts judge that their clients properties would not be presented in the best manner on a website that focuses on second hand goods auctions after all do real estate agents in Australia or US use eBay? – certainly not. Harcourts have adopted this strategy and it has not effected their market share – their share is growing.

I would judge that Trade me is not the sole answer to advertising anything in NZ – just look at jobs, Seek is still the number 1 jobs website – some high value items like jobs and houses may not long term fit the image and profile of trade me – cars, beds, shoes, CD’s and mobile phone – certainly core for Trade me.

My reply was as follows:

Realestate.co.nz had 354,357 UB’s in April, of which 145,000 odd also went to Trade Me. Another 621,080 went to Trade Me and not to Realestate.co.nz.

Harcourts.co.nz had 161,891 UB’s in April, of which 83,500 also went to Trade Me. Another 679,945 went to Trade Me and not to Harcourts.

These are total traffic figures- I should have used domestic, but actually from memory the total numbers make realestate.co.nz look better. I would say though that the impact of those overseas browsers is pretty minimal – after all how many houses are sold each month to overseas buyers?

While UB’s are over-counted (e.g. I have multiple browsers and computers so count many times) this is still a pretty compelling market that Harcourts misses out on. There must be more to it.

And there is – Realestate.co.nz is partially owned by Harcourts, and the Harcourts CEO is the chairman of Realestate.co.nz. Isn’t this a more likely reason for them not to list on Trade Me?

Almost every other real estate agency on Realestate.co.nz is on Trade Me. The last hold outs were/are the shareholders in Realestate.co.nz.

I have no problem with Harcourts holding out, but the reasons are clear, and they are not based on statistics but on ownership.

There are 365 Harcourts listings on Trade Me right now – placed, I understand, by individual agents. If I were a Harcourts agent I’d be pretty annoyed that 600,000 Kiwis were not able to view my listings, and I can understand why they would do an end-run behind the corporate policy.

Meanwhile Barfoot’s have over 2000 listings on Trade Me. Do we think that Harcourts are looking at Barfoot’s recent success in Auckland and wondering just how much of that relates to their presence on Trade Me? Remember that Trade Me attracts sellers, not just buyers.

Actually I’d love to see a chart of sales by agency versus number of listings that month on each of the sites. It would make interesting reading for the entire industry. I suspect you’d better be on both main sites to maximise your chances of a sale.

I do believe there is a place for both Trade Me and realestate.co.nz, but if Harcourts are really scathingly positioning Trade Me as a 2nd hand goods market then they show a very poor awareness of what exactly Trade Me is to Kiwis.

eBay is a poor cousin to Trade Me – they never figured out how to do Motors or Property, and certainly not Jobs. In Australia the market for cars is pretty fragmented, but is mainly on independent listing sites. Similarly the market for property is all over the place, without one dominant player (it varies by region and realestate.com.au is pretty good).

Not only are 40% odd of Trade Me’s items on sale new, but Trade Me is the marketplace for cars and bikes (due to poor online competition back in the day), getting close to the same for property (where realestate.co.nz is good competition), and still in progress for Jobs (where Seek was a very strong incumbent).

As an aside (and red herring) – what happens to the other 5% of real estate agent listings that are not on realestate.co.nz? Are they listed anywhere?

Disclosures: none – I have not worked for Trade Me for quite a while, and I know both Alistair from Realestate and Brendon from Trade Me Property, and they are both good guys.

Make it easy for me to leave you – unsubscribing

Like Rowan, I’ve been unsubscribing from a lot of list emails recently. Let’s see what we can learn from the process.

The Good

The best email subscriptions are easy to unsubscribe from – requiring a simple click from inside the email, which bounces to a web page with a confirmation message.

This is exemplary – at the bottom of each WSJ news alerts message is a one click “stop this now” link. (There is also another link where you can go to the website and manage all of your emails)

Next best is a return email to unsubscribe – something like this from the OECD.

Less good but still ok-ish are email lists that give you a unsubscribe link, direct you to a page and make you hit a confirm button on that page, sometimes answering a question while you are there. This is painful, but I guess you can spend a few more seconds to help them understand why you are leaving, and you don’t have to remember a login or password.

I had to laugh at this “why did you unsubscribe” pick-list from a sporadic email list that I signed up for some client research.
This drop down list actually made me feel a lot better about the particular organisation, even though I never read their spam. I’m guessing that the information they gather isn’t really  that valuable, but it is clear that the list owners understand the state of mind of people that have resorted to unsubscribing.

This is an important lesson - by the time you want to unsubscribe you are annoyed with the cumulative impact of all the messages, and therefore you don’t really like the senders. You are not happy, and want out.

It also means that email senders don’t want the customers anymore either. The recipients  are not reading, and if they are reading then they are not enjoying – so advertisers will get negative vibes.

Therefore it is important to do three things as an email sender:

  1. Make it really easy to unsubscribe, so messages will never annoy customers again
  2. Try, even, to make customers enjoy the process – so the last taste is a good one, and they will consider signing up again later or for something else now.
  3. Ask for feedback – so you learn and customers feel they have their say. Do make it optional though.

The Bad

The bad unsubscribe links aren’t what they advertise – they send you to the website, make you do something and then send a (one or more) “are you sure?” email, which is doubly annoying as you’ve just told them never to send me messages again.

The worst offenders are links that direct you back to the originating go to their site, require you login and then ‘manage your email options’.

This is simply unacceptable today. I’ll often be on a computer (e.g. the iPhone) where I don’t have my password for that site stored, or maybe I’m simply too lazy to go through the process so I won’t unsubscribe.

While some ‘email marketers’ may want to keep expanding their email lists, I say “NO – you do not want me on your list”, and here’s why:

  1. The cumulative annoyance directed at your company will continue to build up until I am mad when ever I see your contemptable unstoppable spam
  2. I will desperately try to consign your crap to oblivion in my junk mailbox, and thereby never see any of your messages again. Your email list is vapour.
  3. I’ll get really mad and tell people about it, and maybe even blog about it…

So let’s name and shame, and I’ll direct this to a company that actually does know better: Trade Me, and specifically OldFriends.

The Old Friends emails have been getting spammier* and spammier, and I am getting really annoyed*, angry even at the spambot* that keeps sending them* – so I want to remove them.

*refer to above three points for linguistic context

However to remove myself from the OldFriends spambot requires a login:

OldFriends is not a site made for constant hanging out – so chances are that the login screen will draw a blank when it comes time to remember your details:

Of course we know the email address – it was just spammed – and so we can ask for yet another email to send you your password. Umm – no thanks – that is going to take too long.  (and I won’t mention the giant page-long “do you know these people” brick wall after you log in)

It’s the same with FindSomeone**

so I’ll keep getting spam from Findsomeone as well.

**(are you single, cute, smart, ridiculously weathly and have low standards? – get in touch :)

Trade Me can do it right though, as you’d expect.

Here’s how easy it is to unsubscribe from Mod’s Motors. First – click on the unsubscribe link in the email:

and that’s it – done.

Trade Me also make it trivial to sign up again for the email – which I quickly did.***

***I hope I never have to do this for real – Mod is leaving Trade Me but I trust that the appeal of 250,000 righteous readers will keep his classic quotes coming:

The thrill of fettling a neglected beast and turning it into a minter is special. Some people try to do this with the opposite sex and get disappointed when they fail.

Summary

So what have we learned?

  1. Make it easy to unsubscribe
  2. Make it easy to subscribe
  3. Make it fun

To me the best unsubscribe approach is:

  • a link that unsubscribes me instantly
  • lands me on a professional, branded and fun page
  • that thanks me, tells me I’m now unsubscribed and offers me an optional one to three question survey to fill out.

Which is just common sense.

Spend the $900,000 Telecom – you cheap sods

Sigh.

And there I was praising Telecom the other day – praise it seems that was all too soon. I am concerned that recent behavior is indicating that Telecom is back to its old monopolist ways.

I write of course of the XT network interference with the Vodafone network. The facts laid out in Vodafone’s submission and the court case – ably reported by the NBR – are on the surface pretty simple:

  • Telecom’s new XT network interferes with the Vodafone network
  • Telecom has known about this for a while
  • Telecom could have removed this interference by spending $900,000 to install filters

There is a bit more nuance in the court case, but as a customer I am mad enough as it stands.

Yes Vodafone could spend some money to maintain their own service quality, yes Vodafone coverage is not close to perfect anyway, and yes Vodafone could have formally engaged with Telecom earlier.

But one the thing that has changed is Telecom’s new network.

The absolutely crazy thing is that the $900,000 to update all Telecom cells is chump-change in this context, and by not spending it Telecom is not only risking a lot, they making us all suffer:

  • Telecom suffers as they suffer PR damage, just as they launch a new network
  • Telecom suffers if their launch date is delayed
  • Telecom and Vodafone suffer financial costs of the court cases
  • Vodafone suffers as their network quality drops precipitously
  • We all suffer as we all have even more lousy phone services
  • The lawyers win – they always do

It’s positively juvenile, and the sort of behavior I would have expected from the old Telecom administration.

So please wake up Telecom – and behave in a way that shows you care about all New Zealanders. Demonstrate some of the values that you are trying to show in the video you produced.

  1. Fess up, say you will install the filters as quickly as possible
  2. Install those filters within a week. Nothing is impossible
  3. Settle with Vodafone so that their lawyers don’t run your business.

In the meantime those in the executive suites please ask yourselves How did this happen? Was this a decision made at the top or were you as blindsided as much as we were? If you were blindsided then how could your culture let that happen?

Until you fess up and move on we are back to the old promote one way and behave in an entirely differnt way – it doesn’t work for children and it certainly doesn’t work on us adults.

We’ll find out tomorrow at midday whether Vodafone is vindicated, but in the meantime I just want my phone to work properly.

The media is no longer the message

An interesting survey by eMarketer, via WebProNews:

Stop. Don’t look too hard at the table. This survey is fundamentally flawed.

The flaw is simple, and it reflects an old mode of thinking: These days the media is not the message.

For example there are over 200 million blogs (they have stopped counting), and to rate them all together is patently unfair. You cannot compare, say, Bernard Hickey’s Interest.co.nz/blog with The Bad Blog (which is what I found when I googled “bad blog”, and which is actually not that bad).

To put it another way, on interest rate matters the interest.co.nz blog is more trusted than, say, TV1 Business News. However on general business or current events news, TV1 would be better.

Meanwhile Bernard and the rest of the team’s blog is less trusted, by me, than the Wall Street Journal – a publication that is a newspaper, has a online news site, offers video, does product comparisons and has blogging.

How do we measure all of this that? How do we compare the WSJ video with their print edition? How do we compare Fox TV news with their internet site with their internet delivered video?

The answer is that we don’t, as we know that increasingly the media type irrelevant and the publisher’s brand is everything. We seek our trusted providers, and we are getting pretty agnostic about where we find them:

  • If we are watching TV then we know that the BBC has a better global perspective than Fox News – unless we are right wing and living in the USA.
  • If we are online then the NYTimes is better than the Waikato Times – unless we live in Waikato and want the latest Hamilton news.
  • If we are reading about something esoteric then we know to search the internet, and that Wikiedia or a blog is probably going to have the best answer.

We assess credibility very quickly. We look for the publisher (e.g. Bloggers that write for newspapers have more credibility), we assess the credibility of the writer by looking at the production or site design, checking the publisher or writer background (about 2.2% of the traffic here checks my bio), see who refers to the that source, then look for well-crafted writing and video solid references and so on. We are often not really aware of how we do it, but we can do all of this in less than, say, 5 seconds.

It used to be that we looked for beautiful people to deliver news that we trust, but Fox news in particular has made this increasingly irrelevant – as we have come to realise that beauty is not correlated with intelligence or trustworthiness.*

We have already made decisions for older media – The Dominion Post and TVNZ news have a rich heritage, and so we tend to trust them, while a new magazine like Idealog will need to earn our trust through excellent writing, distribution and product design. However the older media can lose our trust, and when it goes, as it has for me and most TV news, it is very hard to earn back.

So how should the survey have been written? Here is one possibility. It’s not ideal but I feel it is a better way to ask the question. The audience is of course biased – and it will be interesting to see how biased.


		

Importing MYOB data into Xero – opportunity?

I’m trying to convince my mother to switch to Xero from MYOB. The unfortunate problem is that all of her history is stored in MYOB, and so switching requires re-keying of invoices and the like.

The solution to this is to commence using Xero at the start of a financial year, which leads to a spike in Xero sales at the end of each year, but means a discontinuity in systems. Moreover the end/start of the year is a particularly busy time for bean counting, and is therefore the worst time to try to change your modus operendi.

To me this is a pretty simple “just do it” for Xero, and there are three powerful reasons for doing so:

  1. Encourage switching throughout the year, increasing speed of adoption and word of mouth sales through the year
  2. Increases sales by letting customers have test drives using live data – customers can upload their MYOB data to Xero and just start playing. It’s pretty hard not to notice the difference in usability when your own numbers are displayed.
  3. Provide a better product to customers by importing history and thus being able to report comparative results versus previous financial periods

How about it Xero? Sure this is a non-trivial task, but surely it is possible?

If not, then let us know, as there is a market gap here and a new company (let’s call it NewXco) could help.

NewXco would simply provide a (semi-)automatic MYOB upload to Xero service, charging a fee or taking a commission on Xero sales. The repetitious work could be done out of a cheaper location, such as India or rural New Zealand, and the cunning code provided by some smart locals. Anyone in?

How to write a promo email – Apple sets the standard

It’s a great product – but I really don’t think my Mother will use an iPod touch, and I really don’t think Mothers day in an economic downturn is the time for Kiwis to give expensive presents.

However  the email is so nice that you just want to click:



Apple just gets these promotion emails exactly right – you can tell there is considerable design and language effort that goes into them. Let’s have a look at a few from the last year or two. I challenge you not to go to the
Apple store and  peruse some of the goodies on display.

While you are looking – think about your own personal and business emails. Are they up to standard? Are they reflecting what you want your company to reflect?

Trade Me can hold their head high (e.g. Mod’s Motors is beautifully written and produced) but not many others come close to this. Why not give it a go?

So Pink

Apple email

Christmas is red and white

Apple email

Boys valentines

Apple email

Christmas season begins

Apple email

Cheap offerings for Kiwis
Apple email

Oh-err

Apple email

New books

This had some localization issues – a version went to NZ where Treasures are a nappies/diapers brand.

Apple email

Floating

This one worked on me

Apple email

Mac Pr0n

Apple email

Edu.mac.ate me

Even newsletters are done well. Thus is a sales brochure really

Apple email

Uber cool

Apple email

Nerd mail

Even iPhone dev emails are beautiful. This was from a year ago.

Apple email

The New Zealand iPhone 3G network debacle

The iPhone will dominate the top end of phone sales

Even if you are a fan of other platforms, we can all appreciate that Apple has bought new levels of usability to the phone. It’s most obvious in the seamless connection with the App store on iTunes – a system that  makes building, selling and buying applications simple.

For me it’s  like 2003 and iTunes all over again – remember the plethora of MP3 players? They are still out there, but Apple grabs almost all of the revenue, and one imagines almost all of the profit as the others compete out any margin.

I sometimes see a future for Blackberrys, simply because of their installed user base and Apple’s unease with selling to giant corporates, but I also remember that everyone used to have Palm Pilots back in the day.

I am predicting that Apple’s iPhones will grab 40-70% of the top end of the phone market over the next 3 years.

Vodafone NZ iPhone data rates will always be lousy

It’s complicated [Geekzone], but worth going through. All of the network providers are upgrading their networks, and from about June everything will be different.

Vodafone are the sole sellers of the iPhone in New Zealand – they have a monopoly. Their 3G network is currently only in cities, and it is excruciatingly slow compared to, say, Telstra’s Next G service in Australia.

In the next 2 months:

  1. Vodafone are rolling out a new NZ 3G network – but it will not work at 3G speeds for (current) iPhones.
  2. Telecom are rolling out a new 3G network, which will work for iPhones. (similar to Telstra’s Next G)
  3. Telecom seem to indicate that they will not be selling iPhones.

Nobody seems to know anything about NZ Communications.

Buy an iPhone from Vodafone, use it on Telecom

Vodafone, to their credit, are selling the iPhone in unlocked state. You can buy it for about $1130, or for cheaper if you sign on a contract.

But you wouldn’t sign a contract – instead the logical move will be to transfer your iPhone and number to Telecom, grabbing a new SIM card and using it on their new 3G network.

If Vodafone starts locking phones then you will need to crack it – the Dev Team are on to that and I am sure there will be plenty of options for those not nerdy enough to do it themselves.

But for now – just wait

We don’t really know what is going to happen in June, and it gets quite fuzzy thereafter.

  • Telecom may launch with the iPhone in June.
  • Apple may emerge with a new iPhone that is compatible with Vodafone’s new network. They are due for a new one soon, and the timing is auspicious
  • NZ Communications may surprise us all by carrying the iPhone
  • Data rates will be in a state of rapid change as the carriers compete
  • I could have some of these facts wrong

Summary and implications

Apple doesn’t really care about New Zealand – as we are so tiny. But if they wake up then they will realize that either they need to give Vodafone a phone that works at high speeds here, or else they will have to sell the phones to Telecom as well.

Vodafone will fight to retain exclusive rights to sell iPhone in New Zealand, but the slow data rates will mean a much poorer experience versus overseas.

Telecom will try to add iPhone to their list of Phones – as not doing so would be a move equivalent to their decisions to go and then stay with the obsolete CDMA standard. Imagine leaving out 70% of the premium iPhone market.

Vodafone will be hoping that Apple deliver a phone that will work at 3G speeds on their new network. Unfortunately for Vodafone, hope is not a strategy. If they have delivered a high speed network that Apple has no intention of supporting, then I have to say that they have just commited equivilent of the CDMA blunder. If they know something that we don’t – then good on them.

The best answer for all of us consumers the iPhone working on all three networks, and sold by all three networks.

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Disclaimer These opinions are my own, and not that of any of my current or former clients.