1. eBooks will become relatively normal. It will begin to feel a little silly to purchase products that require cutting down trees, chemicals, huge plants, toxic inks and expensive production and shipping. eBooks are cheaper, fast to obtain and just as easy to read, except in the bath. New Zealand will lag on this one, but the switch will gain huge momentum in the USA. 
   I’ll give myself a qualified YES for this one. Amazon’s Kindles are now on sale in NZ stores, we see eReaders being used pretty much everywhere and a lot of people I know have converted. Whitcoulls and Borders hit the wall for a variety of reasons, but eReaders are a part of their story of failure.
2. Pacific Fibre will be financed, and prices for capacity between Australia, New Zealand and the USA will continue to fall.
   That’s a NO – or more precisely a “not yet.” I can’t write too much about this, but suffice to say the team of professionals are beavering away on financing as well as operations and sales. They have announced 4 major customers, signed a great contract with TE Subcom for the cable delivery and that’s all I can say. Stay tuned.
3. The Apple AppStore will precipitate an app revolution, with the best applications migrating to, and many appearing exclusively on, Apple Macs and iOS devices.
   I’d have to say NO on this, as while the app store is showing incredible results for developers and customers alike, and apps are increasingly the place for the leading edge, other formats are also prospering.
4. Rowan, Koz and Amnon will do something amazing – though I have no idea yet what it is, and probably neither do they.
   Southgate labs invested in and got heavily involved with Vend, TheRugbySite, and GoVocab. All are awesome, especially Vend (which I am a smaller investor in) which is gaining good traction. I’m going with a YES, based on helping Vaughan Rowsell with Vend.
5. There will be some significant wins in the Copyright battles for those that want less draconian protections. The lobbying from the entertainment industry owners will continue to backfire as consumers and their advocates fight for what they want.
   YES – the S92A wording in NZ was considerably softened, the USA’s hideous SOPA bill is backfiring and the entertainment industry continues to amaze with their inability to understand the internet. (Latest example). There appears to be a growing mood for a major revisit of Copyright law.
6. The iPhone 5 will blow our socks off, and I and millions of others will buy one to match our new iPad 2.
   It didn’t blow our sicks off with hardware features, but the iPhone 4S with Siri is pretty amazing (it actually understands my weird accent) and it sold 4 million in the first weekend. The biggest change is actually in distribution, as we can buy the 4S anywhere. It did not bring anything truly magical on the hardware side, but I bought 2 of them so I’m giving this a qualified YES.
7. The split US Congress will actually deliver some good legislation to be signed off by President Obama.
   NO. I think this one was wishful thinking, and the state of politics in the USA continues to baffle the rest of us. What was once an amazing example of civility, cooperation, pragmatism and statesmanship (I refer specifically to the Senate) has turned into two side that cannot agree on anything except for the importance of attracting campaign finance. Sad, but the Occupy Wall st movement, Larry Lessig’s book and what is going to be some blatantly crazy spending by the SuperPacs are promising signs of change. It will take something major to break the system, and that’s sad.
8. National with John Key leading will easily win the NZ election and form a coalition  government.
   An easy YES. I’m very happy with the result, even with some of the ACT policies if not their players, and especially happy to see the Green party field some quality new candidates and get rewarded for it. Labour suffered for not doing so and needs to reinvent themselves and their selection process.
9. Powershop in New Zealand will go mainstream – and people will begin to wonder why they ever received paper invoices from their utility.
   Powershop has certainly achieved much higher penetration into the public eye, with the switching sites often highlighting their cheaper prices, and a lot of coverage. Powershop deservedly won the Deloitte Fast 50, has a very successful GrabOne campaign and currently have over 42000 customers. My parents use it, so I’m going with a very soft YES. There is certainly a long way to go before it hits the big time.
10. There will be no major success from the attempts of large generalist newspapers to charge for content online 
    Except, apparently, for the NYTimes that is. NO. I have sharply reduced my own reading of their content as a result, and I suspect the jury is really still out. 
11. The All Blacks will lose the World Cup. Admit it – we have gone into every other World Cup looking as strong as we are now the season before, but when it comes to the crunch each players in every other team lays their individual life on the line to beat the All Blacks in the World Cup knock out stage. It’s essentially impossible to play three or four must-win games in a row with opposition like that. (Clearly I’m very happy to be wrong on this)
    NO – and as I said, Clearly I’m very happy to be wrong on this. What I also didn’t predict was just how good the Rugby World Cup would be for spectators and New Zealand. I ended up seeing 13 games live, including the opening and the final, and spent a huge amount more time and money on the festivities than I had planned. It was superbly executed, the atmosphere was universally positive and the crowd management continuously learned and became excellent. A hearty well done to everyone involved.

This predicting business is great fun, but hard. I count five clear noes, four soft yeses and two clear yeses. Some of those noes will turn into yeses soon, though number 11 is certainly going to stay that way for almost 4 years.

There is plenty that I didn’t predict, but on to next year. 

1. eBooks will become relatively normal. It will begin to feel a little silly to purchase products that require cutting down trees, chemicals, huge plants, toxic inks and expensive production and shipping. eBooks are cheaper, fast to obtain and just as easy to read, except in the bath. New Zealand will lag on this one, but the switch will gain huge momentum in the USA.
2. Pacific Fibre will be financed, and prices for capacity between Australia, New Zealand and the USA will continue to fall.
3. The Apple AppStore will precipitate an app revolution, with the best applications migrating to, and many appearing exclusively on, Apple Macs and iOS devices.
4. Rowan, Koz and Amnon will do something amazing – though I have no idea yet what it is, and probably neither do they.
5. There will be some significant wins in the Copyright battles for those that want less draconian protections. The lobbying from the entertainment industry owners will continue to backfire as consumers and their advocates fight for what they want.
6. The iPhone 5 will blow our socks off, and I and millions of others will buy one to match our new iPad 2.
7. The split US Congress will actually deliver some good legislation to be signed off by President Obama.
8. National with John Key leading will easily win the NZ election and form a coalition  government.
9. Powershop in New Zealand will go mainstream – and people will begin to wonder why they ever received paper invoices from their utility
10. There will be no major success from the attempts of large generalist newspapers to charge for content online
11. The All Blacks will lose the World Cup. Admit it – we have gone into every other World Cup looking as strong as we are now the season before, but when it comes to the crunch each players in every other team lays their individual life on the line to beat the All Blacks in the World Cup knock out stage. It’s essentially impossible to play three or four must-win games in a row with opposition like that. (Clearly I’m very happy to be wrong on this)

During this seismic shift in revenue source Apple’s overall revenue rose from $24 billion in the year ended September 2007 to $42.9 billion in the year ended September 2009. The March 2010 quarter showed $13.5 billion, and so Apple is still growing quickly.

It’s easy to see how the iPhone rose in relative importance to be the biggest earner, and combined with the overal revenue numbers it is clear that iPhone is driving overall revenue growth for Apple. The iPad, meanwhile, may well be the new iPhone and be the main source of revenue for the next few years.

Apple deals in revolutions, and the iPod, iPhone and iPad all created new markets. The iPod is now a small part of the overall business, the iPhone the main part and the iPad represents the near future.

This is classic McKinsey 3 horizons stuff. Here’s how Apple would have seen the world through the three horizons spectrum in, say, 2008, when the iPod dominated, the iPhone was new and the iPad was locked in secret labs.

Apple ensured that there was a continuous stream of new products to replace the older ones in its portfolio. They needed to do this as the fast follower companies quickly catch up with each product category (such as iPod) and make that market too competitive to earn excess returns.

The question for now is what is after the iPad, and in particular what is next that will justify the enterprise value of $209 billion, and a price over earnings (trailing 12 months) ratio of 22.6x. (These are big numbers)
The iPad and iPhone are not enough, as they will eventually be commodities. That’s not to say that Apple won’t have the best products in each class, but the margins will be a lot smaller.

Apple’s valuation implies that the market not only believes the iPhone and iPad will be successful, but also that the next big thing will emerge and be a success as well. That’s a good bet given Apple’s track record, as their design-led approach has given them a sustained product development advantage over their competitors in the last 10 years.

However success in business is hard to hold for a long time, and companies will increasingly copy Apple – not their products, but their design-led approach to business. Being design led is very difficult to achieve, as I’ve seen through Better By Design work with Equip Design, but the results are worthwhile. It’s a long process to be design led, taking years. It’s difficult to do and hard to keep – with Sony’s design-led dominance in the 1990s not carrying over into this century. Companies place design and designers into core roles in the business. It’s hard to find design thinkers that get business and vice versa, but the resulting culture change and the benefits of being design led are increasingly obvious.

Perhaps being design-led will become a business prerequisite. It was not too long ago when lean manufacturing and total quality management were foreign concepts – concepts which are now part of most large manufacturing businesses.

We consumers can only hope.

Even if you are a fan of other platforms, we can all appreciate that Apple has bought new levels of usability to the phone. It’s most obvious in the seamless connection with the App store on iTunes – a system that  makes building, selling and buying applications simple.

For me it’s  like 2003 and iTunes all over again – remember the plethora of MP3 players? They are still out there, but Apple grabs almost all of the revenue, and one imagines almost all of the profit as the others compete out any margin.

I sometimes see a future for Blackberrys, simply because of their installed user base and Apple’s unease with selling to giant corporates, but I also remember that everyone used to have Palm Pilots back in the day.

I am predicting that Apple’s iPhones will grab 40-70% of the top end of the phone market over the next 3 years.

Vodafone NZ iPhone data rates will always be lousy

It’s complicated [Geekzone], but worth going through. All of the network providers are upgrading their networks, and from about June everything will be different.

Vodafone are the sole sellers of the iPhone in New Zealand – they have a monopoly. Their 3G network is currently only in cities, and it is excruciatingly slow compared to, say, Telstra’s Next G service in Australia.

In the next 2 months:

1. Vodafone are rolling out a new NZ 3G network – but it will not work at 3G speeds for (current) iPhones.
2. Telecom are rolling out a new 3G network, which will work for iPhones. (similar to Telstra’s Next G)
3. Telecom seem to indicate that they will not be selling iPhones.

Nobody seems to know anything about NZ Communications.

Buy an iPhone from Vodafone, use it on Telecom

Vodafone, to their credit, are selling the iPhone in unlocked state. You can buy it for about $1130, or for cheaper if you sign on a contract.

But you wouldn’t sign a contract – instead the logical move will be to transfer your iPhone and number to Telecom, grabbing a new SIM card and using it on their new 3G network.

If Vodafone starts locking phones then you will need to crack it – the Dev Team are on to that and I am sure there will be plenty of options for those not nerdy enough to do it themselves.

But for now – just wait

We don’t really know what is going to happen in June, and it gets quite fuzzy thereafter.

• Telecom may launch with the iPhone in June.
• Apple may emerge with a new iPhone that is compatible with Vodafone’s new network. They are due for a new one soon, and the timing is auspicious
• NZ Communications may surprise us all by carrying the iPhone
• Data rates will be in a state of rapid change as the carriers compete
• I could have some of these facts wrong

Summary and implications

Apple doesn’t really care about New Zealand – as we are so tiny. But if they wake up then they will realize that either they need to give Vodafone a phone that works at high speeds here, or else they will have to sell the phones to Telecom as well.

Vodafone will fight to retain exclusive rights to sell iPhone in New Zealand, but the slow data rates will mean a much poorer experience versus overseas.

Telecom will try to add iPhone to their list of Phones – as not doing so would be a move equivalent to their decisions to go and then stay with the obsolete CDMA standard. Imagine leaving out 70% of the premium iPhone market.

Vodafone will be hoping that Apple deliver a phone that will work at 3G speeds on their new network. Unfortunately for Vodafone, hope is not a strategy. If they have delivered a high speed network that Apple has no intention of supporting, then I have to say that they have just commited equivilent of the CDMA blunder. If they know something that we don’t – then good on them.

The best answer for all of us consumers the iPhone working on all three networks, and sold by all three networks.

Moronic: being unable to pay my Telstra bill using the iPhone

Archaic and lacking in security: paying using DTMF tones via mobile phone.

Still – Telstra staff (handpicked?) in Perth store where I got the phone were excellent.

Safari keeps crashing, with increasing regularity

YouTube videos simply do not work anymore

I can’t flip photos in wordpress

Mail does not flip horizontally, making it really hard to read HTML emails that assume a decent screen size

You can’t force an “unflip” of safari (which is sensor driven depending on the phone orientation), say for reading while you are lying on your side.

The keyboard sucks, particularly as essentially all apps have it in the smaller vertical mode.

Single mode browsing is so 1995.

Overall thoughts:
Usefull for keeping up with top 10% of things online, useless for proper browsing (tabs, multiple pages at once, video, speed etc.)

Useful for reacting to short emails, useless for decent work

Useful for quick and dirty photo blogging, useless for the research and work required for a decent blog entry

Useful for travel when you want to go super light, useless for overseas travel and those roaming data rates

A lot if that stuff will get solved with time, and meanwhile the iPhone still feels like something way beyond the norm.
Meanwhile my language has changed for these posts – it is just too hard to write well on this silly keypad.