Ready for the plunge?

It’s amusing being a bear in a bear (down) market. Of course I’m usually a bear in a Bull (up) market, so it’s great to be backing the winning team for once.

This chart in Saturday’s AFR hearkens back to 1987, a year I remember too well.

afr the paper not the lousy website

NZ got hit particularly badly because of some nastily frothy companies. Of course we are in a much better situation today. Or are we?:

Brash is predicting a soft landing – a 10% housing drop. I’m not so sure, and even if that was the average, the impact in those markets that accelerated the most will be massive. Expect negative gearing.

But I’m a pig in mud. I only wish I had a decent amount of money in my portfolio, which is up 35% for the calendar year. The green line is me, the blue the S&P500:

It could have been more if I had held my shorts longer, but most importantly I have not lost anything from what is a pretty balanced (long and short) portfolio.

Of course everyone, except the bears, look good in a rising market, and bears (like myself) look great in a falling one. The worm can turn very easily.

Published by Lance Wiggs