From a post shortly before the last NZ election in 2011:
I’m picking National will just win, draw or nearly win the election outright, that ACT will not earn more than one seat (hopefully none), and that National will choose to work with the Maori and Greens as they did in the last term (as well as Peter Dunne of course). New Zealand first won’t be showing up to the bar.
Overall that’s a bit of wishful thinking as I see this group as the best outcome for New Zealand right now. We need to continue to weather the global events, and certainly don’t want rapid politically driven changes.
For Auckland Central, hopefully Nikki Kaye will become a minister and Jacinda Ardern will elevate to a front bench position after a major Labour reshuffle.
I got it all right – eventually, with the glaring exception of NZ First. Nikki Kaye has finally been elevated to caucus, Jacinda Ardern was promoted to Labour’s front bench after the election, and ACT received only one seat. NZFirst’s swath of seats sadly upset things, and they have proven to be a party without substance, once again. Parties that land a few seats driven by one personality rarely seem to last more than one term, and NZ First is hopefully no exception.
I won’t be moving this blog to political punditry anytime soon though, as these were fairly easy to predict at the time.
One thing you have got wrong is the Greens working with the National government.
They have seen weakness in Labour and have decided to become a more mainstream left wing party. I see this as a bad move (note: I am right wing) as it was good to have a minority party looking after the environment (ie. house insulation scheme). By stepping more into opposition, National hasn’t had to give them any wins like they do with the Maori part. By becoming a full party, their policies have had to broaden and some of them do not economically stack up (ie. printing more money when we still aren’t at 0% interest rates). Also why haven’t they supported Gareth Morgans campaign against stray/feral cats which I also know you support.
With National polling 45% and ACT DOA, next election will be more difficult to predict. How much power will the Greens have if it can form a govt with Labour. Will NZ Firsts latest outbursts (#wogistan) cement its support with its racist, aging (and dying) support base? Will Maori party flip to support Labour/Greens? Does National have to do a deal with Colin ‘I choose not to be gay’ Craig.
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