Lance Wiggs

Well done Stuffies - winning again at the Netguide awards. Best Home PAge, Best Media site and Supreme Winner - a fantastic haul. Meanwhile Trade Me captured Best Trading Site (shock, horror) and best Real Estate Site.

Interestingly Facebook went over the top of Bebo for best social netwokring site. Are Bebo’s days numbered, or do teenage girls not vote in the Net guide awards - the second I’d say.

Funny how I can’t find any other reference to the awards - NZHerald? Netguide??

It’s a certified Real Estate bust market, and you are a “successful property investor”. Do you:

A: do nothing - you got out long ago, when the signs were there.

B: frantically sell out of the remaining “investment” properties you own

C: What there’s a bust?

D: Start a property magazine and website.

Since this is a blog post, the answer is of course D: Start a Property magazine and website.

Dumb move or inspired genius? Stick around for 10 years and we’ll know.

In the short term the 3 page “cool and convenient” website, early PR, and promised advertising campaign smells a little of reek of big money being directed against the proverbial wall.

Meanwhile giants Fairfax, NZHerald and Property Press are not exactly sitting on their hands, while online Trade Me Property and RealEstate.co.nz have carved up the market nicely.

Good luck chaps

Dubai and Burger Fuel

No they have not conquered New Zealand yet

No they have not successfully demonstrated that they can enter Australia

No there is not conceivable explanation why they are choosing Dubai, which is not a sleepy market.

But enter Dubai they have. I guess someone had money to burn.

Crazy or Ballsy? Ben has more .

Bugger - Microsoft has withdrawn from the Yahoo takeover offer. Microsoft upped the price to $33 per share (from $29 odd), which was a $5 billion increase. Yahoo said “no thanks - we want $37 per share” and so Mirosfot walked away.

On Monday, US time, expect:

Yahoo’s shares to fall - and pretty far

Microsoft’s shares to rise, if not immediately, then over time..

In the next weeks we can expect some aggressive lawsuits from lawyers representing Yahoo shareholders, and some  relieved Yahoo employees and executives.

After that it would not be surprising to see round 2.0 - with Microsoft coming back with another offer.

It was always a bad combination in business terms, but in financial terms the Yahoo board has just committed a cardinal sin - walking away from an offer that valued the company at substantially more than it is worth. They really have opened them and their insurers up for a mammoth lawsuit from shareholders, and it is hard to see a plausible defense.

Why “bugger” when the deal made no sense to customers? Because I’m short Microsoft shares - betting that they will fall. I thought that Ballmer would stick it out. However we should remember that Ballmer is a pretty good game theory practitioner, and so much more could happen.

Michael has seemingly abandoned the Trade Me success Secrets blog, which was looking to be a really promising place to discuss and see all things Trade Me.

He also seems to have left the Grey Group - where he was also writing an interesting blog. If you want to see what an untended blog looks like, check out the comments to this post.

Meanwhile Michael’s Linked-in profile is still showing the G2/Grey Group connection.

So - what gives? Where are you now Michael? If you are out there we’d love to keep hearing your views..

As Jim mentions, Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway is involved in a $23bn deal where Mars is buying Wrigley. Mars is $22bn and Wrigley $5bn in annual sales, so while big this isn’t a huge swallow for Mars, and both companies are well run and run on a brand basis, so merging should be ok.

There are two other things interesting about this deal.

Firstly, while it is no surprise that Wrigley is a classic Buffet company - a massive recession proof brand, we also know that privately held Mars is another. The proposal is for Wrigley to be a subsidiary of Mars while Buffet takes a minority shareholding - $2.1bn worth at a discounted price. Is this a way for Buffet to start playing with Mars? Where could this lead?

Secondly Berkshire Hathaway’s role is to bring  (2nd tier) subordinated debt to the table - which is a nice way to raise money in an environment where the traditional funders are running scared. The WSJ mentions that Goldman and JP Morgan are also involved in the financing, but are we going to see more Buffet cash floating around as debt?

Hacking defined, via Gizmodo

It gets a bit repetitive after the first 30 seconds.

Third in a series.

Sadly no airline gets it completely right, and we won’t be happy until almost all airlines (and airports) get it right. But the good news is that some airlines are getting some of it, and one even gets most of it. Let’s have a quick look at some good practices, and in the next post look at what great could mean in reality. I’d love t hear of other great things that you have experienced while flying.
Virgin Atlantic take care of you from your house to destination – but only if you pay full fare business class – which is pretty steep. They will pick you up in a limo take you to the airport, provide pre and post flight lounges and drive you to your end point.  The lounge in Heathrow is something else – last time I was there I got a last minute haircut (distressingly quick these days), while I usually grab a shower and breakfast when I arrive in London.
In flight Virgin Atlantic offer an “eat anytime” service, which is fantastic. It means you eat on your own terms through the flight, and that the servers have their work staggered through the flight. Manwhile the legendary on-board massages are for real, while the bar in Virgin Upper is a bit overrated, but there nonetheless.
Other food experiences are less expensive yet impressive – several airlines give you a cardboard box, which they can hand out really quickly and you can eat then, leave until later or even take with you. Some cheap airlines simply leave it up to you – if you want to eat, then bring your own food, which is perfectly acceptable on short flights with no delays.

With JetBlue, and others, they offer drinks using a restaurant approach – asking for orders and then fulfilling them a few at a time. This takes away the massive carriages blocking the passageway, while making you more relaxed about when you get attended to.

On Air NZ long distance business class, amongst others, (not AirNZ to Perth though) the tray can swivel out of the way, and with the angled seats you don’t have to squeeze past someone else. That swivel isn’t perfect though, but you can squeeze past for a walk if you need to.

Checking in has improved substantially with check-in machines, and great airlines see that there is no queue to drop bags. Meanwhile several airlines offer a physically separate check-in for business travelers – giving a peaceful environment in a area of chaos.

This week I noticed with Qantas in Perth a separate and pleasingly short queue for those that got “rejected” by the machine – which probably means those that are running a tight schedule, as well as those with mucked up flights. A nice way to accelerate the needy.

An the ultimate check-in was, pre 911, on the Delata and US Air Shuttles between NYC, DC and Boston. We could check in at the gate and board shuttles a handful of minutes before the doors shut. If too many people turned up for a flight, then another would be rolled out to accommodate the overload. Meanwhile you could always cross over to the other airline’s shuttle (they ran at staggered times) and use the competitor’s ticket to get a seat. Fantastic.

But security is now an issue we have to contend with. However at many smaller airports it is pretty efficient, and at larger airports, well, the TSA seems to have an answer. In Denver (first) and now in a bunch of other cities the TSA has instituted ski lanes for security. Black for the professional traveler moving fast, red for the experienced and green for the less professional and the encumbered. Go black if you are traveling light, have your laptop out of your bag and shoes off, but watch out for the New York style reaction if you get it wrong and hold up the other punters. Go green if you have a family in tow, or just lots of time to kill – you’ll get friendlier and more personal help.

As mentioned before, Virgin America puts a lot of this together. You can check in online, at a kiosk or at a counter. On the plane they provide eat when you want food service, power at every seat, MP3’s to play, big screen seat back video with even 25 pay per view movies along with games. And that’s just economy. In Business (“First”) you also get a bigger reclining seat - with massage built in. The fares are pretty cheap - $127 for economy and $489 for business is showing right now for a flight from DC to LAX in May. A Qantas Brisbane to Perth flight for the same date – more or less the same distance – costs $AU344 economy and $1084 business. No comparison, but still there are not many routes for Virgin America.
So - some airlines are doing it right, but there is so so much more we could do to make air travel more pleasant. Utopia is up in the next post in the series. Meanwhile - are there any other examples of good?

Second in a series.

This is the Qantas airline lounge right now. It is 7:10pm on a Friday night, and these folk are standing because all of the seats are taken. It’s much better outside in the normal section of the airport, though it’s also manic there.

Airline lounges seem to be designed for good times but fail during peak traffic time, and when flights are postponed or canceled - which happens pretty much every Friday night here I am told.

There must be a better way.

It’s 320pm – and I’ve just been trapped in a chair for over 2 hours. Trapped in one location with no chance of standing up, no chance of stretching, and no chance of working.

No – it’s just after the time between boarding and the completion of the meal serving process, when the solid steel barrier between me and freedom was finally removed, and I am free to walk the cabin.

I cannot stand the waiting time associated with airline travel. So I try to game it.

I arrive at the airport at the very last minute that I can. An empty airport departure terminal frequently confronts me when I arrive – the rest of my flight already checked in. That’s when it helps to have airline status and to travel business class. I’m very often greeted by name at the check-in - the process of elimination in action.

Over the years my strategy of arriving at the last minute has sometimes backfired and I’ve missed quite a few flights. Only one or two of them mattered - I still recall the frosty look I received when I turned up half a day late to a team conference with a new boss early in my career, but consoling my then girlfriend when we missed a flight for a surprise holiday she had booked was much much worse.

Even with those two there is nothing that caused any real harm to my career, personal life or wallet. Meanwhile I’ve saved a huge amount of time that would have been otherwise waiting in queues in in airports, and have a few great stories to boot. For the record, the, err, record for me is 10 minutes and 20 seconds for a domestic flight (post 911) and about 20 minutes for an international flight. YMMV.
But there must be a better way.

Once checked in I’m often one of those final few names announced frantically on the intercom. I know that is poor social behaviour, but it seems I combine a deliberate plan to be in the last batch to board with a tendency to complete disorganization and unbelievably optimistic estimates of time it takes to get to gates. I mean – I do not try to be late – it just happens. Still – I’ve never failed to get on a plane once I’ve checked in, and I’ve reduced my time waiting in lines in front of departure gates to almost zero.

A pet peeve is that even if I am last to “depart”, and the departure gate folk disappear when I am through, I’m often left at the back of a disgustingly slow line in the departure tunnel. Not being a fan of queues (if that wasn’t abundantly clear) I usually stop at the back and wait a while – letting anyone who is even later than me pass on by.
There should be a better way.

Once on the plane there is the usual disorganization, which people trying to deposit bags in lockers, get to their seats, chat to friends and, mostly, wait for everyone else to do the same.
There must be a better way.

So finally I’ve stashed my bags, fiddled around to get my earplugs (which are staggeringly effective – airplanes are LOUD), my iPod, noise canceling headphones, book, magazine while turning off my phone, depositing it and any other clunky electronics in my bag, putting my laptop in the seat pocket and generally fussing around. No – this is not a smooth process, which is embarrassing for someone that flies as much as I do.
There should be a better way.

I’m then trapped. Last to board, last to stop fussing (I do hurry if the plane awaits) and last to get a drink (if at all) , the seatbelts must be on, the pane starts moving and I am now trapped.
Once airborne there is no escape. Servers rush up and down the aisles, often sporting metal carriages of colossal size and momentum. Drinks are proffered, and then dinner. Dinner requires a tray table, which acts as an excellent blocking mechanism to restrain you to the seat.
There should be a better way.

Now I can hear you saying – aren’t you traveling business class – in luxury? Sadly no. Well yes- I travel business class, but luxury this is not. The domestic business class in Australasia is akin to the US business classes. Shoddy. Confined. Painful. And not at all conducive to “business”. I’m writing this on my MacBook Air – a tiny computer, but the angles are just all wrong, my elbows are jammed between me and the chair or they are on the rock hard armrests, again at a painful angle. There is often no power supply or it doesn’t work, and there is almost certainly no internet connectivity.
There should be a better way.

But they do boast a more extensive food service than back in economy – so that’s a good thing right? Again – no. It’s that lengthy food service program that’s kept me trapped here from 1230 to 1540, and let’s face it – we don’t fly to eat well. Eating passes the time, keeps the passengers busy for a while and provides and interesting assortment of aromas for the passengers – before, during and after the meal. But not only are we trapped during the meal program, the tray is jammed full of the paraphernalia of dining, allowing no space for a magazine or book, let alone a computer.
There should be a better way.

That’s a lot of whinging and whining. Economy is worse of course, although they have a simpler meal program, the ratio of servers to passengers is much lower, so you are confronted with an empty plate for longer.

There must be a better way.
And there is. are.
So let’s talk about that in the next post - my next flight is boarding, and I need to go finish my drink, hit the head, shop for a magazine and time my arrival at the gate perfectly to last.

A brilliant move for Blockbuster - Blockbuster’s business is dying, while Circuit city is in retail - which always has some sort of future. If Blockbuster can raise the money from markets that do not realise their business model is dead, then good on them for exiting a bad situation early.

Ignore the rhetoric.

The combination of Blockbuster and Circuit City will result in an $18 billion retail enterprise uniquely positioned for the convergence of media content and electronic devices

It reminds me of the AOL-TimeWarner deal. AOL cashed out by buying old media, which had lasting rather than AOL’s ethereal  value.

If you were following the comments on a previous post, you may have noticed an arcane commentary about “Vertical” documents versus “Horizontal” documents.

It’s consulting gobbledegook, but the differences between vertical and horizontal documents are important. Our friends at the NZ Institute are a bunch of consulting refugees, and their output will serve as good examples of the difference in formats.

Here is a horizontal document: (the broadband report)

Horizontal documents are word, data and diagram packed powerpoint slides - aimed at being used in a small setting, for being written on and for pushing thinking along. They are the notes for a conversation, where the clients and consultants fill in the gaps.

And here is a vertical document. (the NZ emissions report)

Vertical documents are horizontal documents with the words filled in. Notice the charts and tables in the above - they are pulled directly from a horizontal predecessor to this written document. It’s a much higher quality piece of work as a result, worthy of serious contemplation.

It is much harder to write a good vertical document than a horizontal one, as the writing needs to be incredibly structured as well as readable.

The same high standard of logic applies to the horizontals, but for the verticals you also need to fill in the gaps of logic, and bring out examples and evidence that support (or counter) your case.

However - it’s much faster to read the horizontal deck, and they are much better to quickly engage people with. You do need to maintain a conversation though, to make up for the lack of detail.

The art of the vertical is a disappearing one in consulting-land, which is a real shame, but it does mean clients and consultants spend less on writing up and more on the thinking, which is what they are there to do.

However as someone that has worked both sides of the fence I’ve at times been absolutely appalled at what consultants have left behind. Sadly I cannot name names or clients, but I’ve seen some shockers.

So these days I try not to leave anything at all behind, especially in powerpoint form. Consultants are infamous for advising and then leaving, and while that’s enjoyable for the intellectual challenge, it is much more rewarding to stay the course and see the results come from the clients themselves.

If you must retain a consultant and if you must want a report - insist on a vertical, and be critical on the quality - hand it to people that were not involved in the project and ask them whether it makes sense before you sign off on it.

Pathetic.

Official development aid worldwide actually fell by 8.4%, in real terms, last year. This meant a drop from 0.31% to 0.28% of OECD member’s GNI, rather than rising up towards the 0.7% of GNI agreed to at the Gleneagles G8 and UN Millennium + 5 summits in 2005.

Much of the change was because debt relief programs last year were not repeated - they should be and they should be extended.

Get informed on this stuff by reading Stiglitz’s book - “Making Globalization Work“, which captures the concerns of the globalization activists and NGOs and answers with some very practical solutions. It’s highly readable to boot.

NZ’s ODA contributions rose by 3.7%, but we are languishing at the back of the pack in dollar (acceptable as we are tiny) but also %GNI terms.

Some charts

Fairfax Digital Australia and youth publisher LifeLounge have launched a new site: Thevine.com.au, “aimed at 18-29 year olds”.

Now like everyone I’d hate to be in a “target market” and I suspect, like “young adult literature”, the real target is somewhat younger, although the design of the site is pretty placid:

The surefire killer sign of a young audience is the Top Stories section, which I take to be auto-selected by popularity. I’d go on, but, well - just look at the titles to the top articles:

Nice, Tight, revealing, Miranda Kerr, Sex Marathon, hedgehog. Yup - that sounds like teenage minds hard at work - and teenage boys at that. Let’s take a sneak peak at that second story ” new revealing figures“

case closed….

now - did Fairfax and LifeLounge really mean to do that? Well - I’ll leave that to FD MD Pippa Leary:

Asked if Fairfax’s editorial staff was too old for the target market, Ms Leary said “yes”.

Wheat, sugar and rice, along with “certain paper products” those are the items that will remain subject to tarrifs when we export them to China. They represent about 4% of our exports to China, so not a bad outcome.

All three grains are subject to some pretty serious subsidization and quota-driven distortions in the world markets, and we are not serious contenders in the field. So forget about it - let the USA and Europe carry on paying their farmers billions to grow uneconomic wheat and protect from cane sugar imports. This does deprive the developing world of huge export markets for their otherwise competitive farm proucts, but that is a different war.

Overall I’m impressed with the deal - pretty straightforward lowering of barriers and some cultural exchange (working holidays and the like) built in. No horrilbe DCMA copyright provisions, no distorting pseudo free trade - this is pretty close to a good as it gets, though dairy products will take until 2017-2019 and wool is subject to a quota.

Well done to both China and NZ’s negotiators.

The rules of origin seem to be pretty fair - a lot of “change to heading xxx from any other chapter”, by product, which I interpret as meaning that  if a country makes a product from sub product parts that came from elsewhere then it is still duty free.

But what of the human rights, I hear squealing from the left?

Well, another way to look at that question is to ask a similar question: do we believe that the USA should remove their distorting sugar quotas (that keep Cuba’s producers down), trade embargo and travel barriers to Cuba?

Of course they should - engagement is the best way to help another country move forward, and by being open with China we are able to help them welcome them to the world.

And besides - do we really think we, the last decent sized habitable land discovered by humans, can tell a 6000 year old civilisation, land of 1.3 billion, how to behave?

I think not - we punch above our weight, but they are in another game entirely